• by David Goetzl , August 13, 2010

It's August. The lucky are watching the waves roll in and not moving a muscle. The less fortunate are shaking sand out of their cell phones before a quick conference call. Then there are the office-bound, maybe sweating marketing campaigns for the new fall TV season or debating whether social-media firms are worth it.

So, before Jennifer Lopez, Shania Twain or Glenn Beck (perfect pick, more irascible than Simon) becomes the savior of "American Idol," it's time to look ahead to the TV biz this fall and forecast the leaders and bleeders. Forget the environment, print this out and check out how right it is come December.

LEADERS

Comcast. The cable company fleeced General Electric on the NBC Universal deal. GE may have wanted to keep control of NBC, but Wall Street just wasn't going to let them do it. Now, Comcast has the pole position, no matter whether content or distribution proves to be the media turbine. And basically a U.S.-only company can now prosper by selling content in India and China.

ESPN. The network was blasted in July for the putrid hour where LeBron James announced his new team. Much ado about not much! It wasn't billed as a Walter Cronkite tour de force, just a way to put butts on the edge of seats. The big loser was LeBron. ESPN, however, hasn't and wasn't ever going to suffer, and its endless line-up of college football in the fall will be more captivating than ever. Especially if Boise State gets hot.

The Big Four Networks. Hit shows are scarcer than a good health plan, ratings are plummeting and the ad market is volatile. A year ago, that seemed like a death knell. The nets were whining they couldn't make it on ad dollars alone, and NBC was about to become a cable network. How things have changed. Now, these guys have three revenue streams. Advertising looks to be recovering, but their owned stations are getting retrans fees from distributors, while they're forcing affiliates to pay up.

The NFL. A labor dispute could cancel next season. But until greedy owners battle greedy players, the league's popularity will remain stratospheric. And ratings will soar again this fall. Whether it's fantasy football or folks needing to stay home and save, people can't seem to get enough of plopping down in front of the set on Sundays. Part of the appeal is each team has just 16 games, and the playoff race begins on day one. The networks hope the league goes ahead with plans to add two more games, but it would be a mistake. The less the better. Does anyone care about 80% of the NBA season?

Bravo. The network is the Super Bowl for women every night. Whether it's zany housewives, bombastic Bethenny or a matchmaker dealing with long nose-hairs, Bravo has a golden gut for guilty pleasures. Increasing ratings should keep climbing with more wacked characters. Networks looking to reorient can find a template here. After going from high culture to pop culture, staying on-brand has helped with marketing, also producing a focus for program development.

BLEEDERS

Discovery's OWN. This Oprah network is looking more and more dicey. A government filing Friday suggests Winfrey's commitment may have been a little flimsy. While the financials aren't clean, Discovery may have had to spend an extra $89 million to convince her to star in a show. Can't blame Oprah for wanting to hang out in Santa Barbara and collect a check, but David Zaslav might have been a little piqued.

Time Warner Cable. TWC can only hope to stop the bleeding. With its deal to carry ESPN and ABC stations expiring Sept. 2, the operator will surely lose in negotiations on a new contract. If some cable operators felt they couldn't go without the Big Ten Network, what about ESPN? So, TWC will have to pay something like $4 a subscriber and pony up to offer customers ESPN3.com for the first time. Then, there will be more spent to keep ABC on in New York and L.A. just as "Grey's Anatomy" and "Modern Family" return.

Conan O'Brien. Conan has one advantage in moving to TBS: ratings can be ho-hum on cable and still be spun as a success. But something is missing with Conan -- too cheeky, treacly and cloying - to even do that. He'll be competing with Jon Stewart and Colbert and isn't likely to overwhelm. A month after Conan's show launches, brace for a barrage of stories about why it isn't working.

3D TV. Every sports network is experimenting, and golf supposedly is an out-of-screen experience. Maybe 3D will save it if Tiger Woods can't recover. But while estimates on the number of 3D TVs next year continue to increase, it's hard to imagine this format taking off. It takes certain set-top-boxes and expensive glasses to watch. And the programming isn't likely to have more than occasional appeal. It's not cheap to produce, so networks may be miscalculating that if they offer it, viewers will come.

Set-Top-Box Data. It should be the Valhalla of TV measurement. Does it get any better than not just knowing how many people watched your commercial -- but for how long before they changed the channel? Agency research departments should be hammering buyers to make deals based on the data. But they're still recovering -- along with the networks -- from the trauma of switching to "C3" currency several years ago. The second-by-second data reports are mammoth and tough to sort through -- and maybe unsteady. There's a risk the stuff will be like "Snooki": something to marvel at, yet bringing more questions than answers.