• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, February 27, 2026

Has the Trade Desk hit a wall of sorts -- especially for its TV/connected video business?

The company stock price is down 30% over the last 30 days -- now at $23.65 as of Thursday morning -- as concern grows around its core connected TV (CTV) business maybe losing ground to competitors and other factors.

Gross ad-spend growth -- the media dollars that advertising clients spend on the Trade Desk's platform -- is at a low 11% rate for the full year -- $13.4 billion --  below many analysts' estimates.

In somewhat good news, the "take rate" for the Trade Desk -- an independent demand-side ad platform -- is consistent.

It reported 2025 revenue of $2.9 billion divided and gross ad spend of $13.4 billion, which means a take rate of 21.6% -- pretty much where the company has historically has been for many quarters.

This matters a lot to investors because the take rate for "walled gardens," such as Google and Meta Platforms, is much higher and hidden from investors and advertising clients.

The Trade Desk's core business philosophy is all about being "open" with clients, with transparency being key -- in comparison to the big digital media giants.

Still investors are concerned, in the wake of the company's guidance expecting first-quarter 2026 to be $678 million -- which is only 10% growth. This is a massive deceleration of its revenues over previous quarters, which ranged around 25% or more.

What is going on? Dan Salmon, media analyst of New Street Research, wonders whether the new Amazon Ads/Netflix deal may be impacting CTV ad spend coming the Trade Desk's way.

Amazon Ads' competitive threat to Trade Desk has been a concern for investors for some time.

Salmon also wonders whether the slowdown in the big automotive advertising spend is having a major effect -- despite gaining share of spend last year. All to say Salmon is now in a "sell" mode for the stock. Consumer package goods (CPG) brands is also slower.

Investors also may be worried about rising Agentic AI factors brands/advertisers from other third party platforms giving investors some issues.

Still, a more optimistic point of view comes from Michael Morris of Guggenheim Securities, who cited a "buy" for the company, given its growing usage by clients of AI tools (Kokai, Audience Unlimited and Deal Desk) offering better transparency, targeting, flexibility than the big digital media giants.

Trade Desk views those big digital media companies aw being all about "cheap reach."

Analysts say consistent share gains by the big operators mean remaining media budget growth will be harder to come by open internet platforms.

That is the bigger, long-term picture Trade Desk has to content with.