• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, August 27, 2010

Improvement in the radio sector played a role in Carat's much more bullish forecast for growth in the U.S. ad market in 2010. The media agency had predicted an uptick of .2% in the U.S. overall, but after reviewing results so far, revised its forecast Friday upwards to 1.1%.

The newspaper business "remains challenged," but Carat said television and radio have agency soothsayers much more optimistic. In addition, Carat said the 1.1% jump in 2010 -- which is still somewhat plodding in an Olympic and federal-election year -- would be followed by a 1.7% increase in 2011.

Globally, Carat now predicts 3.9% growth this year, compared to its previous outlook of 2.9%. TV spending should increase across the globe by 6.3% this year and by another 6.2% in 2011. That's more than any medium except the Internet, which is targeted for 13.5% growth this year and 12.3% next year.

In global measurements, radio was to have tumbled 10.7% last year, but is forecast for a 4.2% increase in 2010.

Carat did hedge by saying the growth forecasts come in comparison to some of the 2009 drudgery. And the results at the end of the year could have markets in line with 2006 performances.

In contrast, the U.S.'s neighbor to the north is poised for a performance akin to its impressive hockey team in the Vancouver Olympics six months ago. "The economy (in Canada) is in full recovery mode and the advertising market has returned to normal conditions," Carat said Friday.

Carat had predicted growth of 2.4% for 2010 in Canada. That has now been revised up to 3.6%. In 2011, Canada is now predicted to have 4.5% growth, even without a spending boom helped by a home-country Winter Games.

China and Brazil remain the areas where the highest-percentage growth is forecast for this year. And those rates have been revised to grow 16.8% and 12.7%, respectively.