• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, September 21, 2010

The recession may have officially ended, but forecasters at Deloitte are predicting a holiday season that is more ho-hum than ho-ho for retailers.

While it's still better than last year, Deloitte's retail group expects total holiday sales to climb just 2% to $852 billion this holiday period, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline. (The holiday period is defined as November through January.) Last year, sales edged up just 1% over 2008 figures.

Deloitte attributed its subdued forecast to the continuing softness in both housing and employment, which is making consumers reluctant to spend. Adding that any good news—like falling energy prices or a jump in the stock market—might cheer them into spending more, "given the unsteady pace of economic recovery, retailers should expect only a small uptick in holiday sales this year," it says in its report.