Most of the large financial, retail and automotive spenders have returned to the marketplace, notes the report, but the economy has still not returned to its pre-recession level, and neither has advertising spending.
In the U.S., the media categories seeing the highest ad spending growth this year include:
Categories with the largest declines this year are:
Advertising Expenditure By Medium (US$ million, current prices; Currency conversion at 2009 average rates) | |||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Newspapers | $97,237 | 94,199 | 93,019 | 92,300 | 91,908 |
Magazines | 43,844 | 43,184 | 42,644 | 42,372 | 42,300 |
Television | 165,260 | 180,280 | 191,198 | 202,380 | 213,878 |
Radio | 31,855 | 31,979 | 32,580 | 33,815 | 35,054 |
Cinema | 2,104 | 2,258 | 2,393 | 2,538 | 2,681 |
Outdoor | 28,120 | 29,319 | 30,945 | 32,821 | 34,554 |
Internet | 54,209 | 61,884 | 70,518 | 80,672 | 91,516 |
Total | 422,629 | 443,102 | 463,297 | 486,898 | 511,890 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
The report expects the recovery in ad expenditure to continue at a steady pace over the next three years, with 4.6% growth in 2011 and 5.2% growth in both 2012 and 2013. There are certainly risks to the recovery, notably high debt in the developed world (both private and public), persistent unemployment in the US, fears of defaults in the Eurozone, and cuts in government spending. Until advertisers are fully confident that the economic recovery will be sustained, the report anticipates growth to remain below its long-term trend rate of 6%.
Advertising Expenditure By Region (Major Media: newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet; US$ million, current prices) | |||||
Geography | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
North America | 156,556 | 160,386 | 164,516 | 169,277 | 175,024 |
Western Europe | 100,143 | 104,225 | 107,520 | 111,300 | 114,712 |
Asia Pacific | 99,746 | 106,021 | 113,345 | 122,000 | 130,711 |
Central & Eastern Europe | 25,402 | 27,095 | 29,243 | 32,284 | 35,514 |
Latin America | 25,711 | 29,315 | 31,673 | 34,082 | 36,836 |
Africa/M. East/ROW | 21,220 | 22,654 | 24,150 | 25,941 | 28,044 |
World | 428,778 | 449,696 | 470,447 | 494,883 | 520,840 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
In recent years there has been a big difference between the growth rates of developed and developing markets, and we expect this to continue, caused by the much stronger economic growth of the developing markets.
The world's current top ten ad markets divide into four broad groups. Japan is forecast to grow only 5% between 2010 and 2013, dragged down by deflation and huge public debt. The US and the big markets in Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy and the UK) are forecast to grow a disappointing 7% to 9% over the period, held back by concerns over debt, unemployment and government spending. Australia and Canada did well during the downturn, thanks partly to strong trade links with Asia Pacific, and will grow a much more substantial 15% to 17%. The ‘emerging' markets of Brazil and China will grow 31% and 51% respectively.
Its rapid growth means China will overtake Germany to become the world's third-largest ad market in 2011, and stay at that position throughout the forecast period. China is currently just over half (52%) the size of Japan, the second-largest ad market, and will be three-quarters (76%) of its size in 2013. Russia will enter the top ten in 2012, leapfrogging Australia and Canada to take ninth place, and then overtake Italy to take eighth in 2013.
Top Ten Ad Markets (US$ million, current prices; Currency conversion at 2009 average rates) | |||||
2010 Rank |
| Adspend | 2013 Rank |
| Adspend |
1 | USA | $151,519 | 1 | USA | $164,844 |
2 | Japan | 43,267 | 2 | Japan | 45,300 |
3 | Germany | 24,631 | 3 | China | 34,236 |
4 | China | 22,606 | 4 | Germany | 26,508 |
5 | UK | 18,047 | 5 | UK | 19,678 |
6 | Brazil | 14,243 | 6 | Brazil | 18,662 |
7 | France | 12,875 | 7 | France | 13,825 |
8 | Italy | 10,753 | 8 | Russia | 12,228 |
9 | Australia | 9,394 | 9 | Italy | 11,734 |
10 | Canada | 8,867 | 10 | Australia | 10,981 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
The Ten Largest Contributors To Global Adspend Growth (2013 v 2010; US$ million, current prices; Currency conversion at 2009 average rates) | ||
2010 Rank |
| Adspend growth |
1 | USA | $13,325 |
2 | China | 11,630 |
3 | Russia | 4,431 |
4 | Brazil | 4,419 |
5 | Indonesia | 2,652 |
6 | India | 2,493 |
7 | Japan | 2,033 |
8 | Germany | 1,877 |
9 | UK | 1,631 |
10 | Australia | 1,587 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
Looking at their growth between 2010 and 2013, the media can be divided into four groups, says the report:
Internet Advertising By Type (US$ million, current prices Currency conversion at 2009 average rates) | |||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Display | $18,221 | 20,996 | 24,159 | 27,866 | 32,073 |
Classified | 9,770 | 10,352 | 11,267 | 12,285 | 13,285 |
Paid search | 26,219 | 30,535 | 35,092 | 40,520 | 46,158 |
Total | 54,209 | 61,884 | 70,518 | 80,672 | 91,516 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
Television has been the stand-out success of the last five years among traditional media. Bigger and higher-quality displays, more channels delivered by digital television, and the convenience of PVRs mean people are watching more television than ever. Television's share of the ad market has increased from 37.1% in 2005 to 40.7% in 2010, and will rise to 41.8% in 2013.
Share Of Total Adspend By Medium (%) | |||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Newspapers | 23.0% | 21.3 | 20.1 | 19.0 | 18.0 |
Magazines | 10.4 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 8.3 |
Television | 39.1 | 40.7 | 41.3 | 41.6 | 41.8 |
Radio | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 |
Cinema | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Outdoor | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.8 |
Internet | 12.8 | 14.0 | 15.2 | 16.6 | 17.9 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
The importance of the internet to advertisers is understated by these figures, because as well as creating new opportunities in paid media, it has greatly expanded brands' abilities to talk to consumers via social media, both ‘owned' (on brands' own websites and microsites, YouTube channels, Twitter and Facebook accounts and so on) and ‘earned' (conversations consumers have on forums, blogs, etc). These activities can be extremely effective, and many advertisers have embraced them enthusiastically, but most of them will never be picked up in a survey of ad expenditure, says the report.
Internet Advertising By Type (US$ million, current prices Currency conversion at 2009 average rates) | |||||
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Display | 18,221 | 20,996 | 24,159 | 27,866 | 32,073 |
Classified | 9,770 | 10,352 | 11,267 | 12,285 | 13,285 |
Paid search | 26,219 | 30,535 | 35,092 | 40,520 | 46,158 |
Total | 54,209 | 61,884 | 70,518 | 80,672 | 91,516 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, December 2010 |
For more information about this study and access to the PDF format file, please go here.