• by David Goetzl , August 3, 2011

The prospect of 3D TVs transforming the American living room has only been widely considered for about 20 months, following word that ESPN and Discovery/Sony/IMAX would be launching 3D networks. Since then, there have been enough studies, reports and research promising insight on whether Americans will say "I want my 3D TV" that all the noise had become silence.

Until AT&T took on ESPN this week, distinguishing fact from fiction and dreams from data had become a largely worthless enterprise. Nothing new was emerging to serve as a possible inflection point on consumer interest in 3D TV.

The ESPN 3D network went 24/7 earlier this year and ESPN said it would continue to invest more in original 3D productions, but the company has money to burn. And, ESPN has been rather clear that it's in the waiting game, willing to offer the content and hope consumers follow, rather than let the dynamic play out in reverse.

Recently, there was an announcement that Sony, the launch sponsor of ESPN 3D, had re-upped. The news would have been if it had walked away. What choice did Sony have? The company has 3D sets to move and it was too early to give the sponsorship opportunity to Toshiba (especially as Panasonic sponsors a 3D network on DirecTV).

Frustratingly, there have been survey results aplenty showing consumers are reticent about buying 3D TVs because - get this - the sets are expensive. Plus, they need to wear annoying glasses to watch them.

Even projections on ownership levels of 3D sets coming from the Consumer Electronics Association -- which presumably are sturdy because it gets stats directly from the manufacturers - showing 3% of U.S. homes have a 3D set didn't offer much, since people who have the sets don't always hook them up properly in order to receive the content.

Sadly, the most compelling data on 3D interest hasn't been made available. That would come if the likes of Comcast and Time Warner Cable (and AT&T) would provide stats culled from set-top-box data on how many people are watching ESPN 3D or 3net ( from Discovery, Sony and IMAX) on their systems. Not too long ago, even an ESPN executive said the company didn't know them, showing how difficult divining the 3D TV-consumer relationship may be. 

But then this week, AT&T offered more to chew on than research firms or academics have yet as the telco dropped ESPN 3D from its U-verse service.

In a statement reported by Multichannel News, AT&T said ESPN wanted too much in carriage fees to justify keeping the network, "especially considering the low demand we've seen from customers."

Operators, of course, frequently drop networks in price disputes, then launch missiles about how few people want the content seeking leverage, but this one smacks of something different. Taking any ESPN content off the air is serious business.

And there is no way AT&T would have played that game if it determined risked material customer losses to cable and satellite operators. The telco is competing fiercely to establish its U-verse service and has invested a fortune to build it out. It's unlikely to allow paying a bit more to ESPN to get in the way of its successful march.

Unlike Comcast and DirecTV, AT&T was charging customers an extra $10 a month to get ESPN 3D. Yet, there is little reason to believe the tax did much to curtail demand. Sports fans - especially those who have money for a 3D set, and are tech-savvy enough to get it hooked up right - aren't likely to be deterred by $120 a year.

So, it will be telling when -- if -- AT&T and ESPN reach a deal to restore the network. AT&T continues to offers 3D movies, so it will have reliable data giving it a sense about customer demand for 3D content as it negotiates with ESPN.

If ESPN 3D stays off U-verse for a significant length of time, that will be the most intriguing evidence yet that hunger for 3D content may be minimal. Some operators haven't offered ESPN 3D yet, but AT&T will have tried and determined it wasn't worth it.