Commentary
Who's Right About The Future Of On-Screen Media?
- by Charlene Weisler , Op-Ed Contributor, December 7, 2011
When it comes to a discussion of the future of on-screen video, there are generally areas of agreement among the various constituencies. One is that the landscape is in constant flux, creating changes to the business model and market uncertainties. Another is that technology forms the playing field. But overall agreement of its future impact on the industry and the consumer mindset may end there. December’s OnScreen Media Summit in New York helped highlight the various issues, bringing together many industry experts in the space.
What is the future of on-screen video? Discussions of the subject can become contentious. Opinions ranged from Discovery’s David Zaslov’s optimistic declaration that “this is the best time to be in the content business” to Boxee’s Avner Rosen who believes that “the current system is bound to fail. We have a new reality that we ignore at our own risk.” Some, like Doug Sylvester of Avail-TVN, see areas of potential risk, warning that “OTT is a destructive force” and that “the infrastructure needs to be updated.” Some compared the current video model to that of the music industry whose cautionary tale of industry fallout remains a gloomy warning to other media facing the same challenges. Others such as Rebecca Glashow of Discovery said the “people don’t want to work that hard for entertainment. We are not the music industry.” All very divergent opinions. Who is right?
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One thing is clear: there is a rich and important future for data analytics so that any component of the video landscape can be measured and insights made actionable for sales and strategic decision-making. If we cannot understand how to measure and analyze, we will not be able to monetize. If we cannot monetize, there is no business model. The crucible is data analytics. As Joan Gillman of Time Warner Cable noted, “It is not the data; it is what you do with the data.”
In fact, there are successful new business models being built today around big data such as addressable advertising and the expanding sophistication of local advertising. Greg McCastle of AT&T spoke about more data and metrics being developed around ROI, made possible via the use of set-top-box data. In fact, local advertising is one of the richly improved areas for advertisers with more available data (as noted by Rentrak’s Bill Livek) and therefore better, more stable metrics. Some combination of census-level data via the set-top box and a demographic sample will move this industry sector forward with a robust representative sample. Add to the mix VOD dynamic ad insertion, as described by Kathy Timko of Canoe, and the optimists in the industry may have cause to smile.
New and improved revenue streams made possible by new streams of data and emerging technological advances can not only help stave off media obsolescence, they can also offer a richly rewarded future. Who is right among all the differing opinions about on screen media? I will cast my lot with the optimists -- as long as they are data enthusiasts.
Interesting discussion. As always, the end result will likely be neither as rosy as the most optimistic nor as devastating as "bound to fail".
However, people have been predicting the complete and utter failure of TV since the late 1970s'. First, it was VCR's, then DVR's, then online, then...
Today's reality is that piped into you home via channels TV is far more vital and alive today than it's ever been.
My quibble with this article, though, is the idea that "there are successful new business models". The truth seems to be there are some businesses making money around big data addressability. But these business models are, so far, quite ineffective for the primary funding source of programming: the advertiser.
We've delivered ads through a wide range of online and on-demand TV options for a decade. And what we've learned is: there's nothing that even begins to offer the consumer impact that we get through broadcast and cable TV.
So companies are getting investor cash and claiming some profits. But we should be more careful in how we define "success".
Oh, ads will be sold and money will be made without the "finite" metrics. I am sure that there are still some people who will know what will promote their business intrinsically using experience and instincts and are will to take a chance with cable channels....I mean on-screen media.
Hi Paula,
I wish I could believe that advertisers would accept intrinsic, instinctual gut feelings in place of data but I have not seen it yet. Performance must be measureable and post-able.
Also, On Screen media is more than cable channels. It is all the cross platform - tablets, mobile and who-knows-what-else-will-be-invented.
Hi Doug,
I agree - the future is often shades of gray. Addressable advertising in how it is being defined today is still in its infancy. Viewers are still getting up to speed with all the innovations. And how will connect tvs impact the viewing paradigm.
I think that the boon to the advertiser is that they will get metrics similar to those used for standard tv measurement with more stable samples.
Most certainly the lure of promised access to that type of data mining will bring droves of advertisers and big budgets regardless of accuracy. So should we as the audience purposely stray from our preferred programming to cloak themselves in anonymity? Nah, I enjoy bad TV too much.
Steve, there is no escape...