• by Wayne Friedman , February 1, 2012

Media stocks will gain "positive sentiment" in the coming months from expected strong national TV upfront pricing for spring's upfront advertising market.

Former advertising agency research executive Brian Wieser, now senior research analyst of Pivotal Research Group, expects approximately 8% growth on CPMs for national TV networks during the 2012-2013 season.

Wieser believes this will contribute to positive sentiment for media stocks in the spring. This includes CBS, Comcast, Walt Disney, News Corp., Time Warner, Discovery Communications, Viacom, Scripps and AMC.

But Wieser says investors should adjust accordingly, noting "there is an absence of empirical data which correlates upfront pricing to actual revenue results. At a fundamental level, we encourage investors to focus on expectations of upfront volumes rather than upfront prices, as these are ultimately more highly correlated to network TV full-year revenues."

Last June, where upfront pricing was set for the 2011-2012 TV season, was a strong market ranging from 9% to 12% hikes on CPMs for many broadcast and cable networks.

Wieser says more conclusive evidence for the market will be revealed from buyers in April or May, indicating whether dollar volumes for marketers are up or down.