Commentary

Tablet Forecast Suggests Small Screen Saturation in Mature Markets

According to the new IDC Quarterly Tablet Tracker, following a second consecutive quarter of softer than expected demand, worldwide tablet plus 2-in-1 forecast for 2014 has been lowered to 233.1 million units. The new worldwide forecast shows a 6.5% year-over-year growth rate, well below the 12.1% growth rate previously forecast.

Jean Philippe Bouchard, Research Director for Tablets, says "… the global picture… (shows) that the tablet market is slowing down… but digging into the regional dynamics… (indicates) a good appetite for this product category… North America and Western Europe will combine for flat unit growth in 2014… remaining regional markets will generate 12% unit growth over the same period…"

The report says that price pressure on tablets with smaller screen sizes (less than 8 inches), and evolving tablet usage in emerging markets, will fuel that unit growth. While average selling prices are expected to stabilize at US $373 in mature markets in 2014 (due to the shift to larger screens and cellular-enabled tablets,) ASPs in the rest of the world will decrease to US $302, representing an annual decline of 10%.

As an illustration of evolving tablet usage, notes the report, shipments of tablets featuring a built-in option of voice calling over cellular networks in the Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) region reached 25% this quarter, representing annual growth of 60%. This trend suggests that end users in this region are looking for a single device that can meet their needs in terms of voice communication and media consumption. For some that single device is a tablet and not a smartphone, says the report. 

Jitesh Ubrani, Senior Research Analyst for the Worldwide Tablet Tracker, says “… (with) small devices… the rest of the world (will)account for the majority of shipments in the years to come… in terms of dollars spent… medium- to large-sized devices… North America and Western Europe will still produce significant revenues."

Tablet plus 2-in-1 Year on Year Growth

Region

2013 Actual

2014 Forecast

2018 Forecast

North America + Western Europe

25%

0%

4%

Rest of World

88%

12%

5%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, August 29, 2014

For additional information from IDC, please visit here.

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