Commentary

That’s Rich: The Fear Factor

There is no doubt that things are changing and that people are afraid. The question is, how will this affect the way we do business? Which marketing and advertising solutions will benefit from the current crisis and which will falter?

Judging by what I read in the papers, things sound very bleak indeed. And yet, when I go visit agencies as part of my travels, the ones I’ve visited lately $àEswamped. Granted they are getting by with much less staff. But there has been a definite uptick lately in business. I assume some of it has to do with the season, but even the agencies seem surprised by the increased work. Afraid to ramp up in case it goes away, they are nevertheless running around like crazy. And this isn’t an isolated incident. It is at every agency I’ve visited. Some are even launching new interactive divisions.

Maybe it means that advertisers have woken up. Maybe it’s a fluke. All I know is that it doesn’t jive with what I read. Good news doesn’t sell. People can get addicted to bad news. When people are fearful, the don’t look for those things that will make them feel better: By some perverse quirk of nature we look for those things that will make us feel worse and justify our worst fears.

Bob Dylan in his folky period (which seems to be coming around full circle) said that the times are changing; the first one will be last, the last first. So who’s going to be first? Who last?

Well, I think a safe bet is that streaming audio and video will come out of this way ahead of where they started. Part of the adoption cycle of any new technology revolves around changing people’s habits: getting them to do something in a way they never have before. This is not an easy process. It takes time or some cataclysmic event. We’ve had the cataclysmic event, and by all reports there is a big upsurge in business for streaming video conference companies. Once you get used to doing business via streaming video rather than face to face and have actually done it a few times, you are more open to other forms of streaming video communication: the kinds of things that MindArrow does with their e-Brochure. Will video and audio email suddenly take off, replacing that face-to-face habit which has been newly been broken? Could be. Then, who will take the hit? Certainly any technology that is geared specifically for the travel industry is going to face hard times. I know technology companies in this sector that are completely demoralized right now. A month-and-a-half ago their product plans seemed like a sure hit. And now it is just empty code. And two months ago, many streaming video companies and conferences seemed on their last legs. Suddenly they have been given a new lease on life. The first will be last, the last first. Here is another thought. More people are staying in. That means more people are home watching TV, surfing the Net, reading magazines. More people will start purchasing on-line because they don’t want to go to places like shopping malls. This means that both e-commerce and advertising should go back up. Dramatically. When? I think soon. I think now. But then I’m always going against the prevailing wind. And I never believe what I read.

Emerging Interest founder and CEO Bill McCloskey can be reached at bill@emerginginterest.com.

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