• by Larissa Faw , February 21, 2015

Will "Birdman," "Boyhood," or "Selma" win for Best Picture? Will Julianne Moore nab her first statue?

It remains to be seen who the winners of the Oscars -- airing Sunday (Feb. 22) - will be, but before the first envelope is opened, Amobee Intelligence has tracked who filmgoers think should take home golden statues.

Looking at the indexed weekly Oscar-related chatter since the nominees were announced, during the first week, January 15-21, there was nearly twice as much conversation around Selma than around any other Best Picture nominee, particularly around that picture’s widely-reported snubs. "American Sniper" was ranked second in terms of conversation volume around  Best Picture nominees.  

The following week  (Jan.  22-28), "American Sniper" had the most social chatter concerning its Oscar chances,  followed by  "Boyhood." And by the week of January 29 - February 4, "Boyhood" was top-ranked, with "Birdman" trailing far behind.  

But that’s where the "Boyhood" bandwagon stalled and "Birdman" took off. The week of February 5-11, "Birdman" was on top in the social chatter sphere, while volume around "Boyhood" flagged significantly. And "Birdman" remained on top the following week garnering twice as much Oscar-related conversation volume as Boyhood.

Hence, it appears that "Birdman" is the picture peaking at the right time. 

Meanwhile, social media chatterers believe Richard Linklater should go home with the Best Director award for "Boyhood." Interestingly Selma's Ava Duvernay is the second-favorite choice for the award, despite the fact she isn't nominated. 

Similarly, Eddie Redmayne of "The Theory of Everything" has garnered the most social media attention within the Best Actor race. However, David Oyelowo, who also wasn’t nominated for "Selma," had 61% as much volume associated with Best Actor as Redmayne. "Birdman"'s Michael Keaton had half as much social volume as Redmayne.

With Best Actress, Julianne Moore in "Still Alice" is both the presumed frontrunner and the social media frontrunner. "Boyhood"'s Patricia Arquette has attracted the most attention in the Best Supporting Actress category. And J.K. Simmons is tops in the Best Supporting Actor category.