• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, January 3, 2005

Research, accountability and creativity loom large in the minds of industry leaders heading into 2005. Those themes, as well as reality TV, DVRs, on-demand media, and the burgeoning broadband marketplace are among their big predictions for the year ahead.

"Measurement takes a big ramp-up next year as Project Apollo, Nielsen commercial ratings, the Radio Advertising Bureau's Media Effectiveness Lab, the Advertising Research Foundation/Interactive Advertising Bureau's Cross Media Labs and overall technology play a critical role in this important developmental arena." - Bob Liodice, president, Association of National Advertisers

"Two thousand and four was dominated by massive AOR pitches. While I predict that the market will continue to see healthy activity on the new business front, it may come from smaller to midsize companies who are seeking the same level of service and media marketing sophistication that is in demand by relatively larger scale marketers." - Laura Desmond, CEO, MediaVest

"The brighter, more aggressive advertisers and agencies will begin to work more creatively in plan development execution and messaging." - Steve Farella, CEO, Targetcast TCM

"I predict that in 2005 we'll see the first substantial creative assignment going to a media shop (i.e., more than simply a one-time project). And I predict that that media shop will begin to understand just how difficult and elusive world-class creative work is." - Lisa Seward, media director-North America, Fallon

"From my perspective, 2005 will be the first year to see video content that is really pervasive across multiple platforms outside of what was traditionally the TV: broadband, 3G cell phone technology." - Mark Stewart, chief strategy officer, Universal McCann

"With the uptake of iPods, DVR's, broadband and home networking, the line between online and offline blurs as consumers watch TV on the Internet and send their digital music and files to their traditional televisions. This blending and leakage will have impact on organizational structure (online/digital specialists versus traditional), measurement (more and more emphasis on outcome based measurement versus input based measurement) and creativity (use digital production to create more cost effective commercials, etc." - Rishad Tobaccowala, president, Starcom IP

"The new found success of character-driven dramas with continuing story-lines will inspire clones from rival networks. 'Lost' and 'Desperate Housewives' are successful on a multitude of levels because they're unique. Besides having great ensembles cast, they both feature the element of the 'big mystery.' For 'Lost' it's the mysterious magical happenings on the island. How can a paraplegic prior to the crash, be able to regain the full use of his legs post-crash? How can a tropical island have polar bears as inhabitants? For 'Desperate Housewives' it's the mystery surrounding Mary Alice Young's suicide." - Shari Anne Brill, vice president-director of programming, Carat USA

"Marketing Organization Design will start to get on the drawing board as an important priority for the marketing community." - Bob Liodice

"The term 'on demand' media grows as people realize that all electronic media is moving to a form of on demand (broadband or VOD or online music videos or even Digital Video Recorders." - Rishad Tobaccowala

"We're going to see strong place-based experiential media programs implemented for leading advertisers. More importantly, we're going to see some media agencies taking charge with message development." - Steve Farella

"Cable Systems will aggressive market VOD [video-on-demand] and built-in DVR services to consumers as a way to upgrade subscribers to digital set-top boxes." - Shari Anne Brill

"Two thousand and five will be a seminal year for TV broadcasters in which the downturn in business will be caused by a fundamental change in the advertising business, rather than by just the odd year cycle of no political or Olympics spending. This change is being driven by consumers and advertisers alike who are shifting their attention to new ad platforms such as the Web, broadband, video streaming, wireless, and others Industry analysts have already begun to see broadcast stocks as "value" instead of "growth." The broadcasters who are working to change their business culture to embrace these new platforms and advertising formats will be rewarded." - Gary Gannaway, CEO, WorldNow

"Re-aggregation rather than segmentation becomes the rage as clients realize that it is less and less about chiseling down large masses of audience but rather re-combining clusters of people into some form of scale" - Rishad Tobaccowala

"CEO's and CMO's will move closer and start to get on the same page." - Bob Liodice

"The post-Janet Jackson back lash will continue as networks and stations remain risk averse to programming that could potentially be deemed indecent. The recent decision by selected ABC affiliates to pull the broadcast of 'Saving Private Ryan' along with the FCC's recent request to obtain a video of the Athens '04 Opening Ceremonies in response to receiving complaints about NBC's coverage of the event are two ominous examples." - Shari Anne Brill

"Behavioral targeting grows because search itself becomes costly as advertisers bid up prices of search and advertisers try to find other ways of targeting intent." - Rishad Tobaccowala

"Two thousand and five could be an off-year for broadcast creativity and innovation, as everyone hustles to find the next scripted drama or warm-hearted reality show. Creativity will, however, be alive and well as marketers and cable programmers begin to tap into the opportunities presented by evolving consumer behaviors and new technologies, in connecting audiences with brands and content." - Betsy Frank, executive vice president-research and planning, Viacom's cable networks, film and publishing

"Privacy with regard to targeting becomes an even greater issue as targeting becomes more relevant and therefore spooky plus the politicians roll out in droves. Privacy also impacts blogs as people begin to worry about this media which is a combination of private musings and public broadcast." - Rishad Tobaccowala

"The advertising marketplace will have a robust 2005 with overall spending increases across all media at better than 7 percent." - Bob Liodice

"Two thousand and five is when MediaPost's MEDIA magazine truly begins to understand that two issues (traditional and non-traditional) share more than 50 percent of content that is similar (really an offshoot of point one) and clients and media realize that it is media companies and not ad agencies is where the future of marketing communications are. As a result talent which the media companies need migrate from agencies to media companies." - Rishad Tobaccowala