They might not admit they do it, and they might not be happy about it, but at this point consumers are hooked on the convenience and value of the connected world, says eMarketer, in anticipating the next four years.
According to an analysis of digital advancements, eMarketer shows predictions for likely happenings through 2019. From the rise of mobile messaging apps to mobile commerce finally gaining some mojo, these are eMarketer’s predictions.
Proximity Mobile Payment Forecast
Proximity mobile payment users (MM)
% of Smartphone users
% of mobile phone users
Proximity mobile payment transaction value (billion)
Average spend per user
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015 (includes POS transactions via mobile, excluding tablets)
Smartphone use is driving up the number of inbound calls to businesses, says the report. Voice-activated search has been rising steadily. Consumers are talking to personal assistants through their smartphones and cars, and those “assistants” are getting smarter. And with the rise of smart watches and connected home devices, they’re talking to a wider variety of devices from various locations. Marketers need to be ready to optimize digital content for speech-based (not keyword) queries.
Marketers will join the conversation (in messaging apps.) WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger are both well on the way toward having 1 billion monthly active users (MAUs) worldwide.
Top 5 Instant Messaging/Chat Apps Among US Internet Users (2016; % of Respondents)
% of Respondents
Source: TNS Connected Life, October 2015
In 2016, Facebook will add more services and marketing opportunities for brands in both Messenger and WhatsApp. Based on what other messaging apps are doing, and what the company has said about advertising in its messaging apps, the offerings Facebook will bring to the table will not be traditional marketing or advertising opportunities.
Despite the ascent of ecommerce and Mcommerce over the past decade, trillions of dollars are transacted annually in the US at brick-and-mortar retailers, says the report. But the divide between digital and physical commerce will be further bridged in 2016, as mobile wallets become a standard feature on newer smartphones and more retailers accept proximity payments from systems like Apple Pay, Android Pay, Samsung Pay and others.
But simply swapping cash and credit or debit cards with a tap or scan of a smartphone won’t be enough to convince the majority of consumers to change decades of ingrained payment behavior, says the report. Connecting more of the retail commerce experience to mobile wallets, especially when it comes to offers, coupons, rewards and loyalty, will be critical to getting more people to pay with their phones.
Right now, mobile is seen as more of an influencer in the retail funnel, says the report, with mobile transactions making up only a tiny portion of overall sales. eMarketer estimates that only 1.6% of total retail sales in the US will have occurred on smartphones in 2015. That’s going to change in 2016, continues the report, thanks to moves by the biggest digital companies, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon, to simplify the transition from mobile shopping to mobile buying.
As more connected devices come online as part of the internet of things (IoT), and as overall connectivity between people and things increases, more people (especially younger ones) will give up increasingly more of their personal data to marketers and publishers.
Reasons for Sharing Data With Companies By US Internet Users
Reason to Share
% of Respondents
Promotions, coupons, discounts, product suggestions
Info helping decisions
Info to troubleshoot problem
Help with accomplishment
Source: Altimeter Group, June 2015
In Q3 2015, 78% of Facebook’s $4.3 billion in ad revenue worldwide came from mobile. In addition, 727 million of Facebook’s 1.55 billion MAUs (Monthly Active Users) were mobile-only, equivalent to 47% of users who have never interacted with Facebook on a desktop computer, says the report. During the same period in 2014, just 34% were mobile-only. Facebook will soon become nearly entirely mobile, predicts eMarketer.
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