A recent presentation at a TV conference by S&P Global Market Intelligence estimated TV stations will get $9.3 billion in retrans fees this year.
According to other estimates -- BIA/Kelsey, the media research company is more optimistic. It forecasts that advertising revenues for TV stations will be around $19.8 billion this year, down 4.1% from a year ago.
TV network affiliates stations typically hand over a large piece of retrans revenues to their TV network partners. S&P Global Market Intelligence says carriage fees for TV stations will account for 30% of total station revenue -- growing to 35% in 2023.
Overall, local TV stations retrans revenues will grow to $12.8 billion in 2023.
BIA/Kelsey said total revenue for TV stations -- retrans fees, traditional over-the-air advertising sales and digital revenue -- will total $28.08 billion in 2017 -- down 2% from 2016, a year of big ad growth due to Olympics and political advertising. This will rise to $32.78 billion in 2020.
Digital advertising sales are slowly growing, says BIA/Kelsey -- expected to be up 8.8% to $1.09 billion this year over 2016.