Augmented reality has been around for years and it looks
like some more years will be needed before it hits it big.
While Pokémon Go gave many consumers a taste of what AR could look like, the future of AR involves many head-mounted displays
to bring it to a broader life.
Consumer spending on AR head-mounted displays will account for more than half (53%) of all headset spending within five years, according to the new semi-annual
forecast by Greenlight Insights.
Spending on content and software is projected to grow 78% a year, reaching $15 billion by 2023.
“There are disruptions unfolding with the
introduction of new handheld and head-mounted displays and exciting new markets are being created,” stated Clifton Dawson, CEO of Greenlight Insights. “We are expecting a faster adoption
of AR headsets than what we have seen with virtual reality headsets, but optimism should be tempered as the AR ecosystem must address substantial problems on numerous base levels.”
Growth in the number of AR head-mounted displays is projected to be relatively low in the short term but quickly ramping up in following years. Here are the projections for AR head-mounted display
shipments:
- 2019 – 2 million
- 2020 – 8 million
- 2021 – 15 million
- 2022 – 24 million
- 2023 – 30 million
As can be expected, revenue is projected to move along a similar path, reaching well into the billions of dollars by 2023.
One of the challenges in predicting the AR market is the number of
unknowns, most notably the costs of various headsets and whether consumers will be willing to part with that much cash for an AR experience.
For example, the very-long-awaited MagicLeap
headset is expected to cost somewhere in the vicinity of $1,200 to $2,000. The company has raised more than $1 billion to create a wearable device and is in the process of seeking even more
investments.
There are lower cost alternatives, of course, such as Mira’s phone-based AR for less than $100.
The median average price for AR headsets will be $950, according to
Greenlight.
As part of its forecast, Greenlight Insights surveyed 2,000 consumers and found that of those who want to use augmented reality, the top activities would be playing interactive
games, watching live events and navigation when driving.
No matter the desired use, the mass adoption of augmented reality is still on the way.