• by Steve Sternberg , Featured Columnist, May 13, 2018

This marks the start of the upfront season, when advertisers spend upward of $20 billion buying commercial time on national television programs (broadcast, cable, and syndication) scheduled to air during the 2018/19 broadcast year.

The very idea of a fall TV season in today’s video world seems old-fashioned.  The broadcast networks might still adhere to fall and mid-season schedules for debuting new shows, but ad-supported cable networks premiere many new series when the broadcast nets are airing repeats (mostly non-sweeps and summer months). Meanwhile, premium cable networks like HBO, Showtime, and Starz, air new seasons of shows like “Westworld” throughout the year, and streaming services drop new series whenever they happen to be ready (season 2 of Netflix’s “Jessica Jones,” for example, was released two-and-a-half years after season 1).  

Still, the broadcast network upfront presentations getting underway this week are more important than ever.

Where else can we hear the truth — that broadcast networks still have by far more original scripted series and more stars than any other video source?  Or, that virtually all of the top 50 highest-rated entertainment shows (AMC’s “The Walking Dead” notwithstanding) are on broadcast television?

Where else can we hear, as I did from NBC last year, that premium video (the new phrase to describe broadcast TV content), has four times as much audience engagement as paid social media?  Or, that on any given Tuesday, FOX delivers 700 times as many viewers as Facebook has users?  Or, that CBS’s total audience, across platforms, is actually higher than it was in 2000?  Or even that 70% of Univision’s increasingly important young Hispanic audience only watches that network.  Where else can we hear the phrase "digital-linear hybrid” — as I did at last year’s CW presentation?

Where else can we discover that only traditional television can ensure that you are reaching real people, with no fraud?  Or that only networks can guarantee brand safety (avoiding sexual or racist content)?  

Where else will we hear about how the big media companies that own the broadcast networks are the only place advertisers can receive massive reach, new precision targeted research, and other added value elements, that will help sell their products far better than any digital outlets are capable of doing?

While we also hear the typical hyperbole about why each broadcast network is better than any other broadcast network, the statements above all happen to be true. Of course, it’s fascinating that we’ve reached a point where you can sit through a week of network presentations and not hear once about actual rating size – but that’s a subject for another article.

And then there is the actual new programming highlighted during these presentations.  While each network invariably touts its new lineup of shows as the best in years, developing and sustaining successful broadcast series (without NCIS or Chicago in the title) is more difficult than ever.  

Unless a show clicks right off the bat these days, it’s hard to build it into a hit.  Only about 20% of the series that debuted during the past five years will still be on the air next season. Networks used to be so far ahead or behind in the ratings, that leaving a low-rated performer they believed in on the air had few consequences.  They could give a show time for an audience to discover it.  

Today, the network races are so close, replacing a couple of poor performers with mediocre ones (or even repeats of a successful series) can move a network up in the standings.  

We are not likely to ever again see another “Cheers,” which debuted as the lowest-rated show of the week and ended its 11-year run in the top 10.  Maybe that’s why we’re starting to see so many reboots of successful series from those days.

The upfront presentations remain important from a broadcast network perspective, because when you walk out, you are left with the distinct feeling that despite everything else that is going on, the broadcast networks are still the biggest and most effective game in town.