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Does Netflix Favor Disney Or Comcast To Win Fox?

If you're Netflix, who do you want to win the Fox business -- Walt Disney and Comcast?

The lesser of two evils might be the rule.

Any big movie/TV studio content producer and TV network group -- either Disney or Comcast -- would be enough of a headache.

According to Dan Ives, chief strategy officer of GBH, a marketing insights/analytics practice for marketers and agencies, speaking on CNBC, Disney -- due to its growing somewhat bigger threats for streaming video, its ESPN app and its soon-to-be Disney app for TV and movies -- could be a bigger concern.

Overall, while it seems everybody sells TV and movie content to Netflix, it doesn’t look like it will last forever, especially now with Disney looking to pulling out some of its movie content.

Hulu is a big consideration as a more direct competitor to Netflix -- even though it has a big advantage. Ives says the average Netflix user spends 10 hours a week watching its content, with five hours per week going each to Hulu and Amazon.

Disney, Comcast and Fox each own a 30% interest in Hulu, with Time Warner owning, 10%. In buying Fox’s businesses, Disney or Comcast would have a controlling 60% share each should they win the Fox deal.

Complicating matters for Netflix is whether Comcast can find a way to win the big European TV programmer Sky -- making a higher bid over Fox and ultimately more than Disney. Disney’s current bid for about half of Fox assets for $71.4 billion would also include Sky.

Separate from that deal, the better hope for Netflix is that many of Fox’s assets land in different hands -- thus lowering one overall big media competitor threat.

This includes not only having Sky at different media companies, but having Fox’s regional sports networks, and possibly its 30% interest in Hulu, also going elsewhere.

So Netflix might be cheering -- somewhat -- for Comcast to make things a bit easier. 

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