U.S. TV Ads Expected To Be Down 4.7%, But Rise 3.5% In 2020

Total TV advertising is expected to take another hit, with a mid single-digit percentage decline this year. But it is forecast to  rebound -- somewhat -- with smaller gains from next year’s Olympic and political advertising.

MoffettNathanson Research expects a 4.7% drop this year in total TV advertising to $75.6 billion -- now the second-largest U.S. ad platform. Next year, it projects a 3.5% hike.

Both estimates are under all U.S. advertising growth levels, which the stock-market research group says will add 5.8% this year -- totaling $227 billion -- and rising another 9.5% in 2020.

By way of comparison, digital media -- now the dominant U.S. ad platform -- will continue with higher growth, up 21.5% in 2019 to $106.8 billion, adding 19.3% next year.

All traditional media (TV, outdoor, radio, newspapers, magazines) will sink by 5.1% to $120.3 billion, and inch up 0.9% in 2020.

“Overall, traditional media looks a tad better (actually, less worse) than we had anticipated, while the digital outlook is just a tad less rosy than we had expected, mainly driven by the [first quarter] 2019 miss at Alphabet [Google], which we expect to persist over the year,” says Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson Research.

For 2019, MoffettNathanson expects the biggest TV category -- national cable networks -- to see a 1.5% decline from the year before to $30.2 billion. Local TV station advertising, off 8.5% to $20.9 billion; national broadcast advertising, 5% lower to $15.2 billion; local cable, losing 9.6% to $5.0 billion; and national syndication (including the CW) down 1% to $4.4 billion.

Also for this year: Newspapers (ex-classified) will be down 8% at $12.3 billion; radio, 2% lower to $16.5 billion; consumer magazines slipping 2% to $7.9 billion; and outdoor -- the lone traditional media platform in positive territory -- 3% higher at $8 billion.

Earlier this week, Brian Wieser, global president of business intelligence of GroupM, said total TV estimates see a 5.4% decline in 2019 and a 3.6% hike in 2020. Overall, U.S. advertising will see a 2.6% growth in 2019 and 8.2% more in 2020.

1 comment about "U.S. TV Ads Expected To Be Down 4.7%, But Rise 3.5% In 2020".
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  1. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, June 6, 2019 at 11:50 a.m.

    Wayne, digital media ad revenues include many categories that are not competitive with TV ---especially search, lead generation, direct response, etc. So if we are talking about branding ad campaigns, TV is, by far, the dominant ad medium and digital isn't even close. One would think that MoffettNathanson would know that. Also, "total TV" ad spending includes a lot of local or "spot" dollars,, which is where the real softness seems to be. The national primetime upfront, for example, will see gains in ad spending that will probably amount to 5-6% over last year---we will make our final report on the upfront as soon as the actual negotiaons are substantially completed.

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