MoffettNathanson Research expects a 4.7% drop this year in total TV advertising to $75.6 billion -- now the second-largest U.S. ad platform. Next year, it projects a 3.5% hike.
Both estimates are under all U.S. advertising growth levels, which the stock-market research group says will add 5.8% this year -- totaling $227 billion -- and rising another 9.5% in 2020.
By way of comparison, digital media -- now the dominant U.S. ad platform -- will continue with higher growth, up 21.5% in 2019 to $106.8 billion, adding 19.3% next year.
All traditional media (TV, outdoor, radio, newspapers, magazines) will sink by 5.1% to $120.3 billion, and inch up 0.9% in 2020.
“Overall, traditional media looks a tad better (actually, less worse) than we had anticipated, while the digital outlook is just a tad less rosy than we had expected, mainly driven by the [first quarter] 2019 miss at Alphabet [Google], which we expect to persist over the year,” says Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst at MoffettNathanson Research.
For 2019, MoffettNathanson expects the biggest TV category -- national cable networks -- to see a 1.5% decline from the year before to $30.2 billion. Local TV station advertising, off 8.5% to $20.9 billion; national broadcast advertising, 5% lower to $15.2 billion; local cable, losing 9.6% to $5.0 billion; and national syndication (including the CW) down 1% to $4.4 billion.
Also for this year: Newspapers (ex-classified) will be down 8% at $12.3 billion; radio, 2% lower to $16.5 billion; consumer magazines slipping 2% to $7.9 billion; and outdoor -- the lone traditional media platform in positive territory -- 3% higher at $8 billion.
Earlier this week, Brian Wieser, global president of business intelligence of GroupM, said total TV estimates see a 5.4% decline in 2019 and a 3.6% hike in 2020. Overall, U.S. advertising will see a 2.6% growth in 2019 and 8.2% more in 2020.