With Netflix’s stock down nearly 30% since July as a result of a reported dip in subscribers and the coming onslaught of lower-priced SVODs from the likes of Disney and Apple, most analysts have been warning that Netflix’s outlook suddenly seems uncertain.
But at least at this juncture, with the launches of Disney+ and Apple TV+ still a month away, two new surveys — one among current Netflix subscribers, and one among U.S. adults as a whole — seem to indicate that Netflix remains well-positioned among consumers.
Piper Jaffray’s survey among 1,500 Netflix subscribers in September found that about 75% don’t intend to subscribe to either the Disney or Apple service.
Specifically, 72% said they don’t expect to subscribe to Disney+, and 77% said the same about Apple TV+.
And among the roughly one-quarter who do expect to subscribe to one of these new services “the vast majority” say they expect to also keep their Netflix subscription, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson told CNBC.
“Most existing Netflix subscribers appear to be trending towards multiple streaming video subscriptions, especially as many continue to reduce their spend on traditional TV offerings,” Olson added. (See DND article on other new research supporting the multiple OTT subs trend.)
The survey results support Piper Jaffray’s somewhat-outlier positive outlook for Netflix. This analyst firm believes that the competitive scenario, rising content costs and
“periodic sub-add volatility” are already reflected in Netflix’s stock, which is trading at multi-year valuation lows, Olson noted.
Netflix shares closed at $268.03 per share yesterday but Piper Jaffray’s price target for the stock is $440 per share.
Meanwhile, another survey, also conducted last month, zeroed in on the outlook for the Netflix-versus-Disney+ showdown.
ISP comparison site HighSpeedInternet.com used Pollfish to survey 400 U.S. adults 18 to 54 (a statistically significant sample for the population, according to the company).
Asked what they’d do if they were forced to choose between Netflix and Disney+, 60% said they would keep Netflix rather than switch to Disney+.
However, more than 70% said they already have two or more streaming options, and while some two-thirds said they do plan to sign up for Disney+ when it launches in November, 63% said they won’t cancel their current streaming subscriptions to subscribe to Disney+.
In addition, 6% said they think that content is more important than price when it comes to streaming services.