• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, March 27, 2020

A diverging media marketplace between supply and demand comes with this pandemic crisis. There is way higher media supply and expected lower advertising demand.

Will that equation stay the same three or six months from now?

TV-focused marketers already sense there will be a sizable drop in spending, including digital media. Facebook and Twitter have already noted higher social-media consumption, but anticipate much lower advertising revenue for their respective platforms.

But not every business is hit equally: Amazon, Walmart, Target, and CostCo are seeing much higher consumer buying. Groceries store chains, pharmacy chains, and other essential consumer retailers are doing great business -- as well as pursuing higher hiring activity.

With a massive jump — 3.3 million people now out of the work — one can see those potential workers shifting to many of these businesses from restaurants, bars, hair salons and health clubs, which look to be in difficulty for some time.

Right now, it seems consumers already have high awareness about where to turn to for essential needs. All one needs to do is see the lines at Target, Costco, Walmart, and other similar stores.

Tougher results will come from big chain restaurants shifting to online take-out delivery and automotive marketers promising online shopping and delivery of cars. Those marketers are spending some dollars on TV right now.

Gibb Haljun, managing director of media investment at GroupM, says what TV advertiser budgets are available could primarily head to the broadcast networks -- and away from cable networks. More cord-cutting from consumers will hit marginal channels with limited reach in favor of wider reach networks.

Additionally, with higher premium TV viewing, expect connected TV to gain -- all due to perceived better attribution and business outcome results.

For example, Beachfront, a video ad management company, says month-over-month growth from February 22 to March 22, has seen its average daily “advertising requests” for U.S. Connected TV Platforms rise 105%; with all video ad requests -- including desktop, mobile, and other -- up 51%.

Perhaps then, social-media advertising -- Facebook and Twitter -- is just lagging currently. Hopefully, it will get stronger results in near-term periods.

Perhaps TV will, as well. Bringing back sports programming on TV would help kick start that -- a major factor in any new math equation.