An MoffettNathanson Research estimate says much of this will come from cord-cutting, CPM inflation and rising advertising VOD services.
This year’s projection is total TV revenue will decline to $61 billion, drifting lower to $56 billion by 2024.
National cable networks will sink to 17% to $24 billion; local TV stations down 5% to $19 billion; national broadcast networks, 14% lower to $12 billion; local cable remaining the same, $4 billion and syndication falling 33% to $2 billion.
In five years -- 2024 -- cable TV networks will see the biggest decline in actual advertising dollars going down to $21 billion, with national broadcast networks roughly at the same levels -- $12 billion.
“This would represent the first period in time when there has been a long-term structural decline in the linear TV ad spending market,” says Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst for MoffettNathanson.
He adds ad-supported video on demand (AVOD) streaming services will grab these lost traditional TV ad revenues because it can improve TV’s reach in adding younger viewers.
Additionally, AVOD can ease cost per thousand viewer price inflation from mixing in lower CPM content. Also, AVOD promises better granular data in targeting audiences.
Estimates are AVOD will grow to nearly $14 billion by 2024 from around $3 billion in 2019.