Commentary

It's 2030: How Many TV Shows Did You Watch On Mobile? Answer: All

by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, November 5, 2020

In two years, mobile ad spending is forecast to grow to around $140 billion a year, according to eMarketer.

At this level, mobile would be more than double the size of all TV advertising -- projected to be grow only from $65 billion to $70 billion. So while mobile gains some respect in terms of revenue, what about with respect to premium content, like TV shows?

On your TV screen, currently, you can name popular TV shows that you have watched, as well as live sporting events including those of the NFL.

But what have you seen on mobile? Your Facebook newsfeed, TikTok page, Google Calendar, or Etsy account? Ho-hum.

Of course you can see a lot more on your phone: a Netflix show, a short YouTube clip on how to fix your garbage disposal, as well as pictures of your friend’s wedding on Facebook. And, yes, you can watch TV clips and/or full prime-time shows.

But then there’s the coming of 5G, which offers quicker access to a bigger variety of premium content, with lower latency, among other positives.

Here’s the true mobile argument: All this new 5G mobile technology -- in its fullest state --- can replace all cable, satellite, telco, and broadband wiring coming from the outside in the home.

So years from now, when someone asks what you have watched recently via your mobile at-home 5G service, you can say you’ve binged an entire season of “The Masked Singer” or a complete NFL, NFC or AFC Championship game.

No one will say “You did all that on your phone?” Finally, you've got something to watch on mobile -- in your living room.

mobile, tv

2 comments about "It's 2030: How Many TV Shows Did You Watch On Mobile? Answer: All".

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John Grono from GAP Research, November 5, 2020 at 4:19 p.m.
Wayne, true for many but not for all.

5G, due to its short wavelength, won't have as large a coverage area. 4G coverage distance is around 10 miles,. 5G coverage distance is around 500 yards. That means that there would need to be a massive increase in the number of distribution points and towers.

A circle with a radius of 10 miles covers 315 sq. miles. A 500 yard (0.3 miles) circle covers around 0.3 square miles.

Further, 5G is more affected by obstruction and foliage.

So it would be viable in urban residential areas, and with a mesh network in CBDs, but for outlying areas the roll-out cost would be prohibitive.
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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, November 5, 2020 at 5:13 p.m.

Wayne, most of the ad dollars that are going to mobile are not coming from TV "budgets" ----especially not for national advertisers. So comparisons of ad revemues mean very little between "TV" and mobile. As for whether most of us will be watching our favorite TV shows---including SVOD/AVOD---on mobile in five years---I doubt it. Some shows, once in a while, sure, but many shows, often---doubtful. That's Quibi thinking---and look what happened to Quibi.