Netflix Will See Its First Decline In Viewers In 2022: eMarketer

by Wayne Friedman , September 29, 2022

Due to rising competition and high inflation, subscription video-on-demand platform Netflix will slip in U.S. viewers for the first time ever -- by 2.3% to 169.3 million, according to eMarketer’s Insider Intelligence.

The definition of viewers here, according to eMarketer, is individuals who watch at least once per month via a Netflix app or website.

But Netflix won’t be in negative territory for long. It is projected to see gains in 2023 through 2026 of around 1.6% to 1.7% per year.

Netflix will have a 65.6% share of all digital video viewers this year -- down from 68.4% a year ago.

In contrast, Disney+ is estimated to see steady, unimpeded growth through 2026. Disney+ viewers are projected to grow 13.6% in 2022 versus a year ago to 108.7 million viewers.

As with Netflix, the definition of viewers here is people of any age who watch Disney+ via an app/website at least once per month.

These results will give Disney+ a 42.1% market share in 2022, projected to rise to 53.7% in 2026.

Looking at subscribers, the most recent estimates say that Netflix has 73.3 million U.S. and Canadian subscribers, while Disney+ has 44.5 million U.S. and Canadian subscribers.

Overall, the dominant OTT platform remains YouTube -- with 231.5 million viewers, under the same eMarketer viewing definition.

Netflix is next (169.3 million), followed by Amazon Prime Video (152.6 million); Hulu (122.8 million); Disney+ (108.7 million); HBO Max (84 million); Peacock (61.7 million); ESPN+ (48.6 million); and Apple TV+ (38.7 million).

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4 comments about "Netflix Will See Its First Decline In Viewers In 2022: eMarketer".

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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, September 29, 2022 at 9:54 a.m.
Wayne, it's all well and good to guesstimate the monthly reach of each streaming service in the U.S. but a far more important stat is the amount of time spent with the service---as this goes towards the appreciation of its value for subscribers. So far, according to Nielsen Netflix is doing quite well in terms of time spent---indeed recent Nielsens have seen its share of all U.S. TV set usage rise beyond 7% which is better than ever---based on Nielsen panel findings for the past several years. So the real question is can Netflix maintain its share---or even grow it---when there are so many competing services out there and, especially, as old guard linear TV fans---including a growing number of oldsters----- join the streaming community. How many of them will buy into the Netflix type of offering---and/or its about-to-be- launched ad-supported AVOD deal?
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John Grono from GAP Research, September 29, 2022 at 10:11 p.m.

Ed, it would be very interesting to see whether Nielsen's US panel is also showing a decline in the number of Netflix panellists. It wouldn't be strictly conparable to the reported global decline in active Netflix users, and it could be possible that US usage is holding up. There is probably a higher propensity to NOT cancel Netflix if you are in the Nielsen panel. That confluence may be why Netflix's US share is still creeping up. If that conjecture is true, their panel management should be rotating some 'Netflix homes' out of the panel (typically done quarterly).

Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, September 30, 2022 at 10:22 a.m.

John, I assume that "shared" passwords also plays a part in the Nielsen tallies.

John Grono from GAP Research replied, September 30, 2022 at 5:57 p.m.

Good point Ed. The panel is 'agnostic' as to whether that household is a paying subscriber or a password sharing benficiary, and focus on the content displayed on the screen(s), rather than the financial status of the origin.