• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, August 17, 2023

The effects of the writers' and actors' strikes on TV and streaming business still seem to have a minor impact on overall consumer perception. But September is just around the corner. 

One might have assumed that soaring results for streamers would continue. But looking back a bit shows a different story.

It's true that streaming usage -- as per Nielsen -- shows a 25% rise year-over-year. But looking at a more granular level, on a sequential month-to-month basis, shows a different picture.

After a 1% increase in streaming TV usage in January of this year, it witnessed a slight 0.5% drop in February, then a 2.3% pullback in March, and another 2% fall in April.. 

All this changed in May -- with some returning and new hit shows on Netflix and other services -- up 2.2%. This was followed by a 6% rise in June and a 2.9% increase in July. 

All the while, broadcast and cable pretty much languished. However, broadcast gained in January and February -- due to an expected surge in NFL viewers-- and the Super Bowl.Cable witnessed gains in March and June, boosted by the NCAA March Madness and NBA Playoffs, respectively.

TV Watch brings all this up now that the strikes move close to the start of the September TV start.  And this is where the rubber meets the road.

Consumers have been promotionally trained to focus on the start of the new TV broadcast/cable season in September. With news outlets still giving updates on the strikes, they are now aware that regular returning shows might be available.

What about streaming? Probably not as much -- at least initially.

Any resumption of TV/movie programming if the strikes were to end today, for example, would still have some major lag time. Shows starting up production now would likely only come on line around the start of the year.

This comes as premium streaming platform subscribers' fee prices have roughly risen 25% on average year-over-year. This includes not just Netflix, Disney+ and others but also virtual pay TV providers -- cousins of cable/satellite and telco operators that have seen sharp cord-cutting by consumers.

Concerns about "churn" -- streamers losing subscribers on a month-to-month basis -- will rise. Of those subscribers remaining, streamers may count on the overriding belief that although some consumers may be inconvenienced by possible delays for their favorite streaming programs, there is still lots of good content they have not seen. 

I guess those streaming recommendation algorithms for programming will be working overtime.