• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, Yesterday

The political polling team at Ipsos has stumbled upon a new, as-yet-unexplainable Trump phenomenon that defies political precedent: his approval rating on the economy has fallen 15 points during his first 100 days, even though most Americans haven't actually felt the impact of his erratic policies yet.

"This is unusual," writes Ipsos' Clifford Young and Bernard Mendez in this morning's post, noting, "Approval usually doesn’t decline for economic reasons until unemployment or inflation rise; instead, it seems the public is reacting to proposed changes."

In fact, the team has coined a new term for the polling phenomenon, dubbing it, "anticipatory friction."

The team doesn't say whether this actually is a leading, or predictive indicator, but it appears to be real phenomenon in terms of voter sentiment about the new/old president, and as the overwrought headline on today's "Red, White & Blog" might suggest, it represents a new evolution in what always has been the main issue for most voters.

"The public isn’t reacting to current pain -- they’re reacting to what they think might happen," the Ipsos public affairs analysts explain. "Anxiety is building around looming tariffs, rising inflation, and the threat of economic confrontation. Not because anything has been damaged, but because damage feels imminent."

While they don't venture to say what might happen should that economic anxiety be unmet and Americans don't actually feel any pain, I think the point is that we've reached a stage where perceptions about presidential performance clearly outweigh the realities. I mean, the Ipsos team painstakingly pointed this out during their monthly briefings leading up to the 2024 presidential election, noting that while the economy was arguably healthy and getting stronger under Joe Biden, the public perception was that it was anxiety that it wasn't. And we all know the result of that misperception.

So will it work in reverse? Hard to say given it's only been a little over 100 days of Trump's nutty trade war, voters-be-damned, brinksmanship, but at least the polling bears it out.

Interestingly, Trump's policies have set a new modern era record for American anxiety about the economy, surpassing the last peak: Trump's first administration (see below).

Lastly, the Ipsos team once again points how that even these acute perceptions tend to be politically partisan ones. Behind the average, Ipsos notes Republican voters are far more supportive of sticking Trump's "Make America Wealthy Again" strategy out (see below).