• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 6 hours ago

Good news for core NFL video consumers: You don’t need a legacy pay TV bundle to watch all the professional pro football content you need: Go to the streaming playbook

The bad? You are not really saving that much money. Maybe around $5 a month.

Total streaming consumer monthly cost from seven major platforms -- Prime Video, Netflix, Paramount+, Peacock, ESPN (a direct-to-consumer platform coming this fall) Fox One (also this fall), and NFL+ -- will be $94.93, according to Guggenheim Securities.

Guggenheim Securities says a comparable package from a virtual pay TV bundle (for example, from YouTube TV or Hulu + Live TV) -- plus exclusive games on streamers Prime Video (for “Thursday Night Football”) and Netflix(for Christmas Day Games) -- would amount to $99.97.

But of course, it's not just a pure NFL programming bundle. All streamers -- and legacy TV networks on those virtual pay TV distributors -- still have access to plenty of scripted and unscripted entertainment and news content.

Guggenheim cautions that its cost estimate of Fox One (the forthcoming Fox Corp. streamer) with a $19.99 price tag could be lower or higher. If, for example, Fox Corp. prices Fox One at say $9.99 that would result in a not-so-insignificant $15 a month difference.

Michael Morris, media analyst for Guggenheim, sees these comparisons becoming more visible to consumers when it comes to making near-term choices they will make between streamer apps/distributors and legacy TV networks/distributors.

“The shift is not without potential implications for the ecosystem,” he says. “We see the greatest risk for 1) legacy network groups without NFL content; 2) businesses with higher-priced, lower-rated sports content; and 3) overall network margins [lowered] should an app-based consumption model result in exacerbated seasonal churn.”

Now, from a NFL corporate perspective, the current near-cost parity between streaming and legacy TV business works well to keep all current TV-video media partners happy -- and in theory -- hardcore football fans.

Even then, there can be issues around exclusivity.

For example, two seasons ago there was some consumer outcry when Peacock aired a Wild Card playoff game (Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs) exclusively.

Earlier this year, Prime Video got an exclusive NFL playoff game (Baltimore Ravens-Pittsburgh Steelers) for the just completed season. That also got some negative consumer reaction.

Now look down the road to the ultimate transition: when would consumers accept the idea of seeing the Super Bowl exclusively on a streaming platform?

Probably not ready for that big surprise play.