Citing “disruptions to global trade and continued deglobalization pressures weighing on advertising investment,” WPP Media has downgraded its global ad expenditure growth forecast for the full year to 6%. That’s down from the 7.7% growth projection the firm issued in December of last year.  

Trump launched his trade war in March although many of the tariffs initially imposed have been “paused until July” to enable trade talks to continue. That said, uncertainty reigns and trade disputes could lead to increased supply-chain issues and curtailed business investment, particularly in new factories and geographic expansion, according to the WPP Media report (the midyear edition of the company’s “This Year Next Year” forecast). 

“Whether the ultimate goal of the U.S. administration’s tariff policy is a new era of American manufacturing or a revenue stream to offset promised tax cuts, the changeability and divisiveness of American policies have eroded global trust in U.S. institutions and the U.S. dollar,” the report asserts. “Trust, once lost, is difficult to regain as any brand can tell you.” 

“Uncertainty and distrust toward America will make deglobalization more likely,” the report adds, “cleaving markets into aligned trading blocs — China, Russia, Iran and U.K., EU, Canada, Latin America, potentially. If markets are forced to align with either China or the U.S. in an escalating trade war, both countries may be unsatisfied with the outcomes, raising the risk of physical warfare as well.” 

The 6% growth, if achieved, would amount to total global ad revenue of $1.08 trillion for 2025. The firm predicts 6.1% growth in 2026. 

The company also downgraded its 5-year compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030 to 5.4% versus the previously stated 6.4% CAGR for the 2024-2029 period. 

Despite the macroeconomic turbulence, the report upgrades the US advertising projection this year to a gain of 5.6% to $404.7 billion. That’s up from December’s prediction that the US would post a 4.8% gain this year (figures exclude political advertising). 2026 growth is pegged at 5.4%. 

“It's impossible to know exactly where the economy is heading, and we recognize the many economic uncertainties we face,” the report states. Our forecast assumes the administration will continue to de-escalate trade tensions, and/or that businesses will effectively mitigate their impact on advertising investments. We also anticipate that the technology sector, including AI-related products and services, will provide a boost to advertising in the immediate and near term.”  

The company has also reclassified ad activity under four new categories:  

Channel categories like TV, Digital, Print, etc., will continue to be reported for a transition period.  

Digital advertising continues to dominate, accounting for 81.6% of all ads including digital extensions such as streaming TV, digital out-of-home and digital print. Pure-play digital will account for 73.2% of advertising in 2025. 

Retail media remains one of the fastest growing segments and is expected to reach $169.6 billion this year and $252.1 billion by 2030, accounting for 18% of all advertising by then.  

2025 will be the year that ad revenue on User Generated Content (UGC) platforms will exceed ad revenue on professionally produced content platforms, per the report. Creator-generated revenue will hit $184.9 billion this year, up 20% from 2024. It is expected to more than double by 2030 t0 $376 billion.  

That said, the company noted that “the lines here are blurry” as some platforms, such as YouTube, do include both UGC as well as professionally produced content. Also, those figures exclude China-based companies and revenue but does include TikTok.  

The report was written by Kate Scott-Dawkins, president business intelligence, WPP Media and her team including Jeff Foster, associate director, business intelligence and Nidhi Shah, analyst, business intelligence.