Back-to-school shopping isn’t just starting earlier
this year—it’s getting a lot more tactical. Pressured by inflation, tariffs, and relentless promotions, nearly half of U.S. consumers have already started or finished their shopping,
according to new data from ICSC. That’s a seven-point jump from last year, and signals a deeper shift in how families are approaching the season.
Shoppers are feeling the pinch: 56% say they’re worried about affording school supplies, and 91% report that higher prices are affecting their behavior. That includes buying
items only on sale (38%), switching to cheaper brands (29%), comparison shopping (29%), and reusing what they can (28%). While August still accounts for the largest chunk of spending, ICSC expects
more of what has happened earlier in the season, especially as deal-centric events like Prime Day and Target Circle Week reshape the calendar.
A separate
report from Wunderkind, a martech platform, shows how sophisticated that behavior is becoming. Today’s parents are less passive shoppers and more strategic operators. They’re visiting
retail sites to compare prices (40%), using browser extensions to track discounts (24%), and leaving items in carts (26%) in hopes of triggering a follow-up deal. Nearly a quarter—23%—are
subscribing to emails or texts just to unlock promo codes. Half prefer personalized offers via email; 29% favor SMS.
In response, brands are leaning into
early access, targeted promotions, and cross-channel campaigns. Walmart is streamlining the process with one-click baskets for supplies, lunches, and dorm rooms. Target’s
“Back-to-School-idays” event promotes value with hundreds of under-$5 items, in-store giveaways, and nearly 500 locations offering personalization stations for backpacks, towels, and
more.
Still, not every retailer is positioned to win. Moody’s notes that apparel brands and department stores, including Kohl's, are the most exposed to
tariff-driven margin pressure—and least able to raise prices. At most, Moody's now expects that sector to grow 3% to 5% this year, well below initial forecasts of 10%.
"U.S. trade
policy remains unsettled, with the Trump administration further delaying reciprocal tariffs proposed in April until 1 August, rather than resolving 9 July," writes Christina Boni, Moody's senior vice
president, in her report. "U.S. companies in the segment still face higher costs even at current tariff levels, with apparel and footwear, big-box and department stores struggling most."
She notes that Target, with a higher mix of discretionary goods, may be particularly vulnerable.
(And adding to the
complexity: Target continues to face boycott pressure from some Black consumers, who say its rollback of DEI efforts—and a $300,000 donation to the National Baptist Convention—reflects a
loss of accountability.)
For marketers, the message is clear: This isn’t just a shift in timing. It’s a shift in power, with shoppers setting the
terms. “Retailer-driven promotional events have become a vital part of the back-to-school season and have reshaped when and how consumers shop to take advantage of the best sales,” says
Tom McGee, president and CEO, of ICSC, in the report. “American families continue to spend even as they face an uncertain economic outlook, and successful retailers will continue using creative
deals and promotions to entice them to spend throughout the year.”
Brands that show up early, speak directly, and offer real value may earn the sale. The rest? Scrolled past, ignored, or
priced out.