Ecommerce sales are expected to rise between 7% and 9%
Holiday retail sales are expected to increase between 2.9% and 3.4% this season, according to Deloitte’s annual
forecast. That would bring total sales for November through January to between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion – lower than last year’s 4.2% gain, but roughly in line with
pre-pandemic growth averages.
Ecommerce is projected to keep climbing, rising between 7% and 9% year-over-year to reach as much as $310.7 billion, similar to last year’s 8% increase.
Deloitte points to steady growth in disposable personal income as a key driver, though it warns inflation and higher credit costs could still pinch spending.
Brian McCarthy, retail expert and
principal in Deloitte’s strategy and analytics practice, tells Retail Insider more about what to expect.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Retail
Insider: When you look at this year’s forecast, a growth rate of 2.9% to 3.4% sounds pretty healthy – especially given all the headlines about tariffs, debt, and consumer
pullbacks. Did the number surprise you?
Brian McCarthy: It didn’t surprise me. Consumers have been remarkably resilient the past several years, and we continue to see real wage
growth outpacing inflation, which gives them spending power. We’re also expecting a couple of interest rate cuts from the Fed, which may not immediately change household budgets but will send a
positive signal. All of that supports steady growth, even if it’s slower than last year’s 4.2%.
Retail Insider: You’ve said this brings us back to pre-pandemic norms.
Why is that important?
McCarthy: From 2020 through 2024, holiday sales were inflated by pandemic-related shifts. This year’s forecast – closer to that historical 3%
average we saw in 2015 through 2019 – suggests we’re normalizing. It’s less spectacular growth, but more sustainable.
Retail Insider: We’re seeing resilience in holiday spending
even as people are tightening their belts in grocery stores, and plenty of CPG brands are seeing sales decline as a result. Why do consumers treat the holidays differently?
McCarthy: We
expect disposable personal income – the money people have after covering basics like groceries – to rise 3.1% to 5.4%. Families may tighten up week to week, but the holidays are
a moment of celebration. They’ll lean on promotions and stretch dollars, but they’re not likely to cancel gift-giving.
Retail Insider: Any early signs of shifts by income
group?
McCarthy: We’ll know more after our consumer survey in October, but broadly, we’re seeing “value seeking” behavior across demographics. That doesn’t
always mean trading down. It could be higher-income consumers buying private label or using marketplaces differently. The stigma of value shopping has faded, and people are even taking pride in buying
private labels.
Retail Insider: What could go wrong with your forecast?
McCarthy: Two things: inventory and costs. Retailers bought early this year to hedge against price
increases, but if demand surprises – say there’s a breakout toy – they may be caught short. And we’re watching producer prices rise faster than consumer
prices. If retailers pass those costs on, it could push up sales totals in dollar terms but dampen unit sales.