Even with tariffs, inflation fatigue, and
nonstop economic anxiety, Americans are still determined to make this a merry holiday season. ICSC, formerly the International Council of Shopping Centers, forecasts retail sales will climb 3.5% to 4%
from October through December, pushing total spending past $1.7 trillion.
According to ICSC’s 2025 Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey, 91% of consumers plan to shop — more than
last year — and most intend to do at least some of it in stores. “It’s going to be a strong holiday season,” says Stephanie Cegielski, ICSC’s vice president of research
and public relations. “Even with all the tariff talk and economic headlines, consumers want to be with family and friends. Those physical spaces — malls, shopping centers, main streets
— are where they gather, enjoy decorations, and find those joyful moments that define the holidays.”
ICSC’s data backs that up: 92% of shoppers say they’ll buy in
physical stores, and 52% plan to use buy-online, pick-up-in-store options. “A lot of that in-store shopping is happening at dollar and discount stores,” Cegielski tells Retail
Insider. “People are going there to be price-conscious — to look for deals, compare prices, and buy what they need or want. It gives them that hands-on sense of control, especially
for lower-income shoppers who are feeling the squeeze.”
Tariffs remain a wild card, both real and psychological. Seventy-one percent of consumers say price concerns tied to tariffs will
make them more selective. “Retailers have done a great job preparing for them and shifting supply chains,” Cegielski says. “But tuning out all that tariff noise is hard."
Gift cards again top the list of most-planned purchases, with 64% of respondents buying them, up six points from 2024, perhaps because they are giving shoppers a tariff workaround: “You spend
$25 on someone, and they figure out how to spend it.” She notes that gift cards also extend retailers’ revenue into the new year, keeping registers ringing into early 2026.