The National Retail
Federation’s latest forecast calls for a 1.3% decline in holiday spending — a mild dip that still signals shoppers’ determination to celebrate. And while 85% of consumers expect to
pay more because of tariffs, most still plan to make room for some holiday joy. On a per-person basis, spending will dip to $890, down from $902 last year. Even with the decline, it’s the
second-highest total since the NRF began its survey 23 years ago.
The NRF’s outlook offers a sunnier take than Deloitte’s report released earlier this week, underscoring how
different methodologies can yield divergent readings of the same season. Deloitte found consumers planning to spend an average of $1,595 per person, down 10% from last year, with shoppers expressing
their bleakest economic outlook since 1997.
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Taken together, the studies paint a picture of cautious consumers determined to celebrate, even as financial unease lingers. And even among experts
predicting an increase, including EY-Parthenon, which expects a 2.5% gain, the uptick stems mostly from higher prices. With retail inflation near 2%, real spending will be roughly flat.
“Time and again, Americans prioritize spending on loved ones for holidays despite economic uncertainty,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in
the report. “With more consumers planning to seek out sale events this year, retailers are prepared to deliver on deals and value to ensure consumers have everything they need to make the
holiday special.”
Of the 8,200 adults surveyed, 91% plan to celebrate winter holidays, spending about $628 on gifts and $263 on seasonal items like food or candy, decorations and
greeting cards. Early shopping, fueled by heavy promotions from Amazon, Walmart and Target, remains popular, with 42% of shoppers planning to begin browsing and buying before November.
The
study, conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics, also finds that among families with kids, gift budgets are increasing by about $30.