Commentary

Disney's Churn Hit: All Negative News Out, Clearer Times Ahead?

Churn rates for streamers continue to be an area of strong focus for analysts -- especially now in the world of a mature streaming/CTV marketplace.

New data from subscription research company Antenna shows major disruption to one media company's streaming efforts: Walt Disney.

Specifically, it concerns almost double the rate of subscriber cancellation for Disney+ and Hulu -- 8% and 10%, respectively, in September.

This was largely expected, coming via the backlash over Disney suspending “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” for a week or so in September. The two streaming services were at a 4% to 5% range for the better part of a year.

Some analysts believe those who abandon the Disney streamers, in response to the Kimmel move, may now return to buying those subscription services.

To add some complexity to the situation, around the same time, Disney issued a price hike for Disney+ and Hulu.

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From all this Antenna offers up many qualifiers in the data as well as this question: Was the higher churn due to Kimmel, or just the price hikes? Many streamers (Disney, Netflix and others) are declining to reveal regular updates on subscriber gains or losses.

The price hike was announced on September 23, a day after Kimmel’s week-long suspension ended (September 17-22).

Disney announced that Disney+ and Hulu would see prices increase by $2 to $3 per month on October 21, with the ad-supported Disney+ plan rising to $11.99, the ad-free Disney+ plan increasing to $18.99, and the ad-supported Hulu plan rising to $11.99.

The Disney Bundle prices also went up, with the Disney+ and Hulu ad bundle increasing to $12.99 (from $10.99) and the ad-free version increasing to $32.99 (from $29.99).

Disney has historically raised prices in the same October period -- in 2023 and then in 2024. Those two factors could add more fuel to the situation.

Some may say that to an extent, this might be good for the long term -- getting all the bad news out at the same time -- and that it's best to see where October’s number lands in the next report.

No surprise as well that Kimmel’s ratings -- which soared on the first day back to 6.3 million average Nielsen-measured viewers -- descended to around 1.85 million in the first two weeks of October. That is somewhat higher than the entire 2024-25 average of 1.55 million.

Even with some elevated subscriber churn hits for Disney+ and Hulu, steadily rising profitability is expected to remain on the same track for the company’s direct-to-consumer efforts.

And what about Kimmel? Well, that’s probably a future business story -- and/or opening show monologue -- to be told.

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