Commentary

Netflix Jumps Into WBD Deal Talk: A Stranger Thing?

After playing coy a bit, Netflix now has hired advisors Moelis & Co., according to a report in Reuters, to look into possibly making a bid on Warner Bros. Discovery.

But don’t read much into this. Big companies regularly do this all the time -- browsing to see how their competition is operating, with a somewhat 50,000 foot overview of corporate strategizing in how that company would fit into its portfolio.

Going forward, however, Laurent Yoon, media analyst of Bernstein Research, doesn’t believe WBD would add much to Netflix -- especially since 90% of HBO Max users are also Netflix subscribers.

The key question for Yoon is about churn at Netflix, which remains at the best level among all major streamers.

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No surprise here: Netflix remains a “must have” platform, according to many analysts, with the lowest level of subscribers opting out of their subscription of any premium streamer -- at around 2%, according to subscription researcher, Antenna.

For a point of reference, HBO Max is currently at a modestly high 7%. But would that change under a Netflix bundle?

Netflix's decision is perhaps more timely, coming at the same time that WBD is looking to split into two companies: one for its streaming and movie/TV production businesses (Warner Bros.) and the other for its cable networks (Discovery Global).

Last week, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos told investors -- not that unexpectedly -- that it would not be interested in buying WBD cable networks.

So the focus going forward is on streaming -- and for some, more importantly -- its studio production businesses.

Right now, it seems legacy media companies -- looking to generate needed content-selling revenue -- continue to make many "frenemy" deals with cash-rich Netflix in producing new TV/movies, or selling it library products.

So why should Netflix look to buy those companies? Well, things could change.

David Faber, co-anchor of CNBC “Squawk on the Street,” weighs in on that possible scenario, imagining that Netflix executives might be thinking whether the HBO library is "something we want to own?" He says: "Absolutely. But is it worth it, and at what price?”

But a bigger threat may loom, he says, if things change in the marketplace. A potential buyer -- either Paramount Skydance or Comcast/NBCUniversal, now as a stronger, financially stronger competitor to Netflix -- would make a radical decision to stop or curtail dealing with Netflix.

Right now, however, most analysts believe the possibility of Netflix buying a huge piece of WBD would indeed be a stranger thing.

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