• by Wayne Friedman , Today

Against the backdrop of a mature and uncertain financial marketplace for TV/streaming platforms come new projections of higher worldwide sports rights fees, according to estimates from Ampere Analysis.

The advertising/media research company estimates global spending on sports media rights for streaming/TV platforms will climb 20% to $78 billion in five years by 2030.

The authors say growth is driven by a combination of factors, including major renewals in the U.S. and rising competition from global streamers pushed to outbid each other for premium live sports content.

The U.S. will drive just under half of those results.

Adding in the most recent major sports programming deal -- with the NBA -- under a new deal that started this year, along with a new Major League Baseball TV deal -- rights fees for U.S. sports properties are projected to rise $36 billion in 2030.

But the major reason may be that the biggest sports-rights fees deal will come from the NFL. The league -- which started up a massive $110 billion, 11-year deal among five platforms in 2023 -- will be pulling the pin when it comes to asking for more.

Although existing deals run until 2034 -- NBC/Peacock, Fox, CBS/Paramount+, ABC/ESPN, and Amazon Prime Video -- the league believes the value of its rights are undervalued. The likelihood is that the NFL will use an option in the next year or two to re-negotiate some deals.

European TV/streaming platforms will grow 17% to $21.3 billion versus 2030 (from $18.3 billion in 2025).

Ampere notes that some major sports properties in the region have faced downward pressure in recent rights auctions. But Ampere now believes aggressive global streamers will boost rights fee again, especially in vying for new FIFA World Cup and the Winter Olympics deals.

Asian rights spending is projected to rise to $9.9 billion by 2030, from $7.2 billion in 2025. Indian cricket league and tournaments will be a key driver in 2030.