By 2032, Eli Lilly will constitute a “league of its
own” in worldwide pharma sales, according to researcher Evaluate’s Annual World Preview Report, released June 23.
Lilly’s expected global sales of $137 billion in 2032 will
be almost 60% more than that of the second largest pharma firm, AbbVie, Evaluate reports.
The overwhelming success will be driven by Lilly’s weight-loss trio, with Mounjaro at # 1 in
sales of all drugs, Zepbound at #3 and Foundayo (its new pill) at #4, according to Evaluate’s forecasts.
Mounjaro and Zepbound together will be worth more than $70 billion, making their
common ingredient -- tirzepatide -- into “the biggest drug ever," surpassing Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccines, Evaluate said.
The three weight loss drugs together
“will make up nearly half of total 2032 sales of the top ten best-selling drugs,” per the report.
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Evaluate notes that Lilly “out-played one-time obesity/diabetes leader Novo
Nordisk, with that firm’s Ozempic and Wegovy slip[ping] just outside the 2032 top ten best-sellers, due in part to their less potent weight loss effects…Still, along with Novo’s
injectable Cagrisema… these three drugs will still together bring in over $25 billion in 2032 sales.”
AbbVie’s autoimmune drug Skyrizi will be the third largest seller in
2032, at over $33 billion, with Evaluate noting that “more convenient dosing, rapid indication expansion and aggressive marketing” have pushed it “well ahead of 18th placed Johnson
& Johnson’s rival Tremfya” (forecast at $7.4 billion).
Rinvoq, another AbbVie autoimmune drug, will be the #6 best-seller in 2032 Evaluate predicted, with “just shy of
$17 billion in projected sales “
Two other autoimmune drugs will also be in the top 10 sellers, Evaluate said, with Sanofi’s Dupixent at #5 (over $20 billion in expected sales) and
Argenyx’s Vyvgart at #10, with $10.3 billion in sales,
Also in the top 10: AstraZeneca’s cancer drug Enhertu, #7; Gilead’s HIV drug Biktarvy, #8; and Johnson &
Johnson’s Darzalox multiple myeloma drug, at #9.
Overall, Evaluate says, worldwide prescription drug sales -- driven by obesity and inflammatory solutions-- will surpass $2 trillion in
2032, growing at a rate of 7% annually until then. “Five drugs will each sell over $20 billion that year,” the report states. “Then the top 20 together will account for almost a
fifth of all sales."
The Annual World Previewalso had a few specific things to say about the U.S., starting with “uncertainty” having “become a new normal,”
with “pricing pressure, policy tantrums, trade disruption and regulatory flip-flops (almost) part of the landscape.”
The report explains that pharma “is learning to deal with
U.S. President Trump’s see-sawing policy threats" through such measures as “agreeing to build local manufacturing plants, or by signing up to Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing deals. Other
countries including the EU, Switzerland and the U.K .have struck trade deals in exchange for lower or no tariffs.”
The report adds: “Constrained U.S. drug pricing comes alongside
FDA turmoil – so much turmoil that it, too, is becoming part of the landscape,” the report continues. “The latest head to roll is that of Commissioner Marty Makary, leaving a further
leadership vacuum alongside those at the top of FDA’s drugs (CDER) and vaccines/cell therapy (CBER) review divisions. ‘Acting’ rather than permanent directors are likely through the
rest of 2026, leaving little visibility on reform items such as around clinical trials and accelerated review pathways.
“FDA’s loss of experienced staff and capabilities may not
impact all pharma firms immediately. But, like tariffs, it is not good news.”