Actually, that answer comes from the securities team at
NewStreet Research, which capped off a series on OpenAI ad scenarios with that remarkably bullish projection: a $110 billion advertising take by 2030. Of course that's the bullish scenario (see
above), but even if you take a conservative "base" projection, OpenAI will be a $54 billion ad player in less than four years.
Advertiser count is "the most important proxy for the long-term
health of any digital ad business, and a very important driver of ad auction dynamics," NewStreet's Dan Salmon writes in his note, pointing out that OpenAI already claims to have "thousands of
advertisers.
"We expect that to reach into the hundreds of thousands by year-end as the Ads Manager beta expands. OpenAI’s early and aggressive SMB push suggests 'millions
of advertisers' is the goal."
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In other words, that puts OpenAI's advertiser count, revenue projections and market share in the vicinity of the top tier digital platform comps.
While
projected peer ad market shares were not available at presstime, Salmon's note did include an equally meaningful stat: annual ad revenue per user, which would put it in Reddit territory by 2030.
