• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer, July 22, 2026

The National Retail Federation’s latest research on this year’s back-to-school season turns up plenty of good news for marketers and retailers. But it also uncovers potential landmines for consumers themselves.

The trade association expects back-to-school sales to hit a record $43.3 billion for K-through-12 shoppers, and $103.5 billion for the back-to-college crowd. It’s been tracking this spending -- important not just as a big-spending season in itself, but also because retailers regard it as a critical indicator for how consumers will behave during the holiday season -- since 2003.

“We now have many years of data,” said Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist, in a webcast press briefing. “When we take a zoomed-out view, it really highlights that even during challenging economic years, back-to-school is a super resilient consumer spending event.”

It’s how parents are paying for this year’s new sneakers, backpacks and calculators that's the more worrisome statistic. In the three-legged stool of consumers’ wallets -- wage growth, credit, and savings -- all three are whacked. Mathews noted that current savings rates are at their lowest levels since 1959, 3% instead of the long-term average of 8.4%. And for 80% of Americans, liquid assets have either declined or stayed essentially flat for the last three years. Wage growth is just keeping up with inflation. Credit card balances are at record highs, and delinquency rates are close to levels not seen since the 2008 recession.

“Consumers are telling us that they're not willing to compromise on spending for school needs for their family,” Mathews said, adding 37% of people say that they're cutting back on other areas, 20% will use buy-now, pay-later options, and 17% are working overtime to compensate.

Retailers are well aware. Kohl’s BTS campaign features thousands of items priced under $25, and JCPenney is promising thousands under $10. That company is also making parents' refusal to compromise part of its back-to-school marketing strategy.

“Our sweet spot is hardworking American families, and this all matters to them. The economic pressures they've been feeling this year are real,” says Marisa Thalberg, executive vice president, chief customer and marketing officer for Catalyst Brands, which owns JCPenney, in a separate interview. “They're going to be seeking deals, and we're prepared with really strong ones.”

The chain is using multiple campaigns to get the word out, she says. One new one relies on comedian Zarna Greg breaking into mom group chats. The overarching theme is commitment to spending on this occasion, Thalberg says. “Just because your means are stretched doesn't mean you don't want great quality, great brands and great style for your kids,” she tells Retail Insider.

The NRF, which conducts its research with Prosper Insights & Analytics, reports that since 61% of parents say they’ve noticed higher prices, they’re shopping around more, heading more often to discount stores, and buying lower-priced brands.

Another brewing change? Parents are more inclined to favor mom-and-pop stores and buy less online. And 17% and 16% of those consumers, respectively, now say they’ll do some shopping at small or local businesses, the highest since 2014.

Those aren’t two separate stories, said Allison Zeller, NRF’s vice president of consumer and industry insights, in the briefing. Parents have the “ability to shop around to find exactly what they need or want, whether it's online, offline, on their mobile, or in their small town. They can be really savvy. They're shopping more destinations, stretching their budget and trying new retailers.”

The percentage decline in planned online spending -- 5% for K-12 and 7% for college -- doesn’t mean overall shopping will be less digital, “just that they are no longer drawing that hard line between what is an online retailer and what is offline," she said. "Someone shopping on a department store's website or app doesn't think of that as being an online purchase.”

NRF also notes big changes in tech spending, with fewer schools requiring parents to buy electronics at all, and one in five saying the school provides the technology outright. “So a growing share of families are stepping back or redirecting,” Zeller said. The percentage of those planning to buy a laptop or tablets is down 4%, yet more are buying home desktops, with those plans reaching the highest levels since 2019.

Electronics spending is still there, but the thinking is changing, Zeller said: “Tech is shifting from a personal student-owned tool to something that is a family and home resource instead.”