• by Sarah Mahoney , Yesterday

Tyson Foods' third-quarter results not only missed Wall Street expectations, but also painted a sad picture: Consumers are trying hard to balance the pressure of rising costs against their love for beef, which has gotten so pricey that ground hamburger is turning into more of a luxury than a basic.

Tyson, the country's largest meat producer and owner of brands like Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm and Ball Park, says sales for the quarter were flat at $13.87 billion. But those results, bolstered by healthy gains in chicken and pork, mask a 16% decline in beef unit sales.

Because the price of beef has risen so dramatically -- an increase of about 12% compared to the comparable period a year ago -- dollar sales fell less, slipping to $5.4 billion from $5.6 billion in the third quarter of 2025. And the beef segment generated an operating loss of $138 million for the three-month period.

The beef industry's problems are complex, and as much an issue of supply as demand. America's cattle herds are now at a 75-year low, due to persistent challenges, including rising feed costs, drought and international competition, all driving more ranchers out of the cattle industry.

NPR reports a 17% decline in cattle operations since 2017, which means there is simply less beef to sell to consumers. And while the U.S.D.A. just announced that it will reopen the Mexican border for importing cattle next month, that "will not solve the entire gap of beef losses we are currently seeing," said Tyson president and CEO Donnie King in the company's earnings call.

There’s also the rise of the New World screwworm in cattle. While this doesn't pose any safety risks yet, it adds a PR problem, making beef costs -- already the fastest rising component of the typical American's grocery basket -- even more of a lightning rod.

The irony is that beef's problems come as Americans are clamoring for more protein, and -- after that brief 2021 stampede into plant-based proteins--– more meat. So Tyson's pork and chicken divisions are both humming along. The demand for protein has soared as 61% of consumers in the U.S. increased their protein intake last year, according to research from Minnesota-based food corporation Cargill.

Social media influencers and brands alike are taking note. GLP-1 use, already causing massive disruptions in everything from beverages to breakfast cereal to the dairy aisle, is also at play.

"I used to say that 'meat was having a moment,'" says Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the department of agricultural economics at Kansas State University. "That doesn't describe it anymore because it's been going on long enough." For the last three years, he points out, beef has cost more per pound, and Americans have still increased their consumption of it.

But the conversation around beef -- becoming sort of an affordability litmus test -- has changed. "What has developed in the last six to nine months in the much broader economy -- wages not keeping up with cost of living, inflation concerns, the affordability discussion you see in the general news all the time -- none of that is specific to beef," Tonsor tells Marketing Daily. "But higher beef prices tend to get thrown into that discussion."

And because this is a moment when people are talking about -- and buying more -- protein, expensive proteins like beef are getting an outsized share of "who can afford this anymore?" comments.

Affordability conversations are unavoidable right now on the campaign trail, social media and family dinner tables, with overall food inflation 24% above pre-2022 levels. A recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds that 66% of people classify weekly grocery shopping as unaffordable, reports ABC News.  As a result, Americans are rewiring their grocery habits in light of some of the biggest price jumps in 50 years, reports AP.

Is there a risk for Americans to permanently decrease beef purchases because of those prices? For people ordering a rib-eye at a high-end restaurant, Tonsor says, probably not. But for a family of six buying ground beef? Maybe: AP reports that the price of a pound of ground beef reached $6.82 in June, a 79% jump from the beginning of 2019, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

But because beef is so core to the American diet, he cites a wonderfully geeky economic concept to prove its sturdiness: cross-price elasticity. If Americans were giving up on beef, "pork and chicken would expect to gain more demand. You'd see a fair amount of substitution between meats. And we have not seen that."