Commentary

Slow-Motion Mobile

So much potential, so much pomp - and so far, so little production. Video-enabled wireless phones have sent the hype needle to 11 this fall, but the technology doesn't seem likely to rock the marketing world anytime soon.

In September, Sprint/Nextel announced Sprint Power View, an original-content sports-and-news video service just for cell phones. The news came on the heels of similar video

cellular pay-per-view movie developments. The Power View service runs on Sprint's fast new evolution-data optimized (EV-DO) cell network.

Verizon Wireless went one step further. It announced an entirely new standard for wireless video. The wireless operator plans a test of Qualcomm's new MediaFlo video service, which broadcasts TV to cell phones on a separate spectrum, using a standard called digital video broadcasting-handheld or DVB-H.

Even chipmakers have gotten into the video-to-cell hype game. At a recent trade show in Germany, Texas Instruments showed a cell phone that displays two channels at once and even records video onto phones and stores it, à la TiVo.

Boasts Simon Morris, Texas Instruments' business line manager for mobile broadcast, "You can take a call and your show goes straight into storage."

But advertisers aren't exactly lining up to buy mobile media.

"These announcements create a tremendous buzz, but it's a double-edged sword," says Courtney Acuff, associate director for media planning at Denuo, Publicis Groupe's media futures practice. "It creates demand that cannot be fulfilled. I have to be careful to educate the client so that I manage expectations."

Media planners have their doubts. They say that so far there is no way to buy wireless video on a traditional cost-per-thousand basis, and no effective measurement tools for cell phone ads. And what constitutes an effective video spot on the tiny cell phone screen?

"In mobile advertising we don't have all the players in place," says Mike Baker, chief executive officer at Enpocket, a mobile marketing firm. "There is no ecosystem."

Even if these problems are resolved, marketers worry that mobile video lacks the crucial element reach. Though video cell networks such as Sprint's Power Vision or Verizon's VCast theoretically can be consumed by 198 million Americans, that doesn't mean they actually do. Potential capacity and real reach are far apart.

Price is also an obstacle. Wireless video costs more: Content plans start at roughly $15 per month and get pricier fast. Video-friendly handsets like Verizon's UPC 6700 start at $350; at other wireless carriers, the tally can reach nearly $500.

Practicality may also make consumers skeptical, suggests Chad Stoller, executive director of emerging platforms at Organic. "We just told consumers to throw out their old phones to start taking pictures [with the new models]," Stoller says, adding. "Now we are telling them to do it again for video. That's going to take some time."

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