• May 16, 2008

U.S. multichannel video services are expected to grow moderately over the next five years in a period that will be marked by increased competition for subscriber loyalty. That's according to an updated projection from SNL Kagan.

The study projects annual growth of 2.1% for total multichannel subscriptions, reaching 108.5 million in 2012. Although market penetrations are reaching a ceiling, the total number of multichannel households is expected to increase, with multichannel subscribers accounting for nearly 89% of TV households in the five-year outlook.

The study, "U.S. multichannel projections," highlights the challenge to cable's dominance and the impact of the February 2009 digital transition.

The digital transition in February 2009 is expected to increase multichannel subscriptions without generating a large-scale migration. SNL Kagan conservatively estimates that 10% of over-the-air households will opt for multichannel, with cable receiving the majority of converts and satellite and telco splitting the remainder.

--Gavin O'Malley