• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 2, 2008

With the first season using commercial ratings finished, it appears that broadcast networks have made out pretty well with the new currency. Predictions that commercial-skipping would lead to a large decrease in broadcasters' salable inventory appear to have been premature.

Nielsen data shows that when comparing the old currency to the new, networks either suffered no inventory loss or what could be considered a minimal amount.

In other words, over the past nine months, there was little difference between networks' "live program ratings" and their "C3" performance ("live plus three days of commercial viewing").

Take CBS--its "live program rating" in the 18-to-49 demo came in at a 2.5, the same as its "C3." And the CW posted a .9 in both metrics.

Fox, ABC, NBC and Univision all saw their "C3" 18-to-49 ratings come in just a tenth of a point lower than their live programming performance.

Fox dropped from a 3.5 to a 3.4; ABC and NBC from a 2.7 to a 2.6; and Univision from a 1.5 to a 1.4.

(The ratings are for regularly scheduled programming only--the core of what's sold in the upfront--and cover almost all of the recently ended season, from Sept. 24 through May 4.)

To be sure, networks lost considerable inventory as ratings dropped due to the writers' strike and other factors, but the currency shift doesn't appear to have impacted them on that front as much as forecast.

There are, however, some caveats: Due to the strike, there were fewer first-run episodes of top scripted shows--the most heavily recorded with DVRs. More new episodes next season could mean more recording and more ad-skipping.

Also, going forward, the universe of DVR homes (perhaps 15% of the country now) will increase--and commercial-skipping in kind. So, the gap between "live program ratings" and "C3" is likely to take on a different dynamic compared to this past season.

Nonetheless, the old currency is simply that from a network's perspective--and comparing the "program ratings" to "C3" will mostly be a spectator sport moving ahead. Its principal use may simply be to serve as an indicator of how popular a show is, and how unpopular its commercials are.

Of course, "C3" may just be a weigh station. Many advertisers believe the currency--which doesn't provide data on a single commercial, but an average of all in a show--isn't a sufficient performance metric. And they're hungry for something like "pod ratings," or even more granular.