• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 4, 2008

A report released Tuesday by Wachovia Capital Markets cited multiple reasons why a strike by the Screen Actors Guild starting in July is "unlikely" and "improbable."

Analyst Marci Ryvicker suggested that SAG lost leverage when its sister union, the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA), cut a deal with the studios. One reason: 44,000 SAG members also belong to AFTRA, meaning they can work even if SAG were to strike. Ryvicker called the prospect "highly unlikely," but it nevertheless hurts SAG's bargaining position.

Ryvicker also wrote that not all SAG members are on the same page as negotiations progress, "making it difficult to achieve the 75% vote threshold required for a strike authorization."

While Ryvicker wrote that her sources suggest a deal will be reached by June 30, there is already "a de facto lockout" in the film business, where production has "basically stopped."

As far as broadcast prime time, Ryvicker said production has accelerated to complete as many episodes as possible by July 1.

As with the writers' strike, which Ryvicker estimates cost the networks a combined $230 million in top-line revenues, the most contentious issues is how studios will compensate actors for the re-purposing of TV shows and films on the Internet and other new media outlets.