• by Wayne Friedman , June 27, 2008

Another possible TV strike is not good news for advertisers and media buyers--except for one thing. It's the summer, and TV viewers might not notice.

The Screen Actors Guild's official contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers ends July 1. In theory, that would give the two sides eight weeks to work out financial issues before the networks' fall season commences in earnest.

"The only good thing is that it'll happen in the summer," says Jordan Breslow, director of broadcast research for Mediacom. "Within those two months, maybe they can come to terms and pick up production in August." The actors are asking for financial improvements similar to those demanded a few months ago by the Writers Guild, such as increased residuals from digital usage of video and DVD sales.

Alarm bells will start ringing for TV advertisers, said Breslow, if the strike drags on into the fall--when new shows and big returning series make their usual loud marketing efforts.

That could mean a repeat of what took place in winter of this year, when TV viewers left broadcast networks, which slapped together schedules of low-rated reruns and reality shows. Instead, they tuned into cable, the Internet and other forms of entertainment.

The good news is that just after the writers' strike ended, networks quickly ramped up new episodes of series--some of which were put on hold last year, such as NBC's "Heroes," "ABC's "Private Practice" and Fox's "24."

But many question whether the networks will air these episodes if the actors strike. Networks have been moving toward airing many series with all originals and no repeats. With a strike, they would have to stop in mid-flight, leaving viewers hanging.

Many analysts speculate that the SAG might offer an extension of their deadline--in part to see how the vote comes in among members of the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists and its new contract deal. SAG officials have condemned that deal as inadequate. (Some AFTRA members are also SAG members.)

The SAG might also extend their deadline to give their cause PR visibility. TV viewership for summer network programming is low compared to fall, winter and spring. Right now, "people are watching cable," says Breslow.

For advertising agencies, if a strike does happen, the issues will be a lot easier to understand. "Agencies will understand why, that actors just want a comparable deal to what the writers got," says Breslow.

If a long strike is certain, networks will again have to juggle, since it may push back all the premiere dates. That might especially hurt NBC, which may have a major marketing decision to make in the last half of August when it airs the Beijing Olympics.

As it has done with many other summer Olympic events, much of its on-air promo campaign has to do with teasing consumers with new NBC fall shows. That would drop out if NBC decides to delay the start of some fall shows.