• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, July 15, 2008

From Staples to JC Penney to Wal-Mart, retailers are already hyping the heck out of their back-to-school offers. But experts expect that nervous parents will rein in their spending.

TNS Retail Forward, which tracks consumer spending plans, says that only one-third of shoppers are planning to do any back-to-school shopping this year--down 5 percentage points from last year. And families who will be shopping say they plan to spend about $506, down from the $668 in school-related expenses they predicted a year ago at this time. Perhaps more tellingly, 26% of those shoppers say they are planning to spend either somewhat or much less than they did last year, compared with 13% who expressed that sentiment a year ago.

And a consumer survey from Staples finds that 79% of moms say that current economic factors, including fuel prices, will influence the way they shop for school supplies.

"'Shopping down' is going to continue to be the big trend, not just for back-to-school, but through the holiday season and into next year," says Tim Henderson, senior director and consumer strategist at Iconoculture, a Minneapolis-based trend-spotting firm.

What's more, he says, the new frugality is a sentiment cutting a wide swath through American shoppers--not just those who are directly under pressure because of the weaker economy. "Even for people who aren't affected, there's the growing perception that conspicuous consumption is gauche right now, given all the negative economic headlines. And for years, we've known that consumers have a low level of anxiety about the amount of debt they carry. All this talk about a weaker economy makes them that much more uncomfortable."

That doesn't mean parents won't go shopping, he says. "We think there's a real analogy between back-to-school and gift giving," he says. "There will still be spending, but it will be more restrained--fewer outfits, and more parents saying to teenagers, 'Are you sure you can't live with the sheet set we bought for your dorm room last year?'"

Another trend he expects to see intensify is the wait-and-see teen, as younger shoppers develop their own spin on economic uncertainty. "Because these kids are very influenced by the economy--directly, in that it's been much harder for them to find jobs and indirectly, hearing their parents talk about their own financial concerns--these kids are much more likely to hold back spending their own money until school starts. They want to make sure they know which jeans and handbags are hot before buying. Many of them are adapting that 'It's cool to be thrifty' sentiment."

"Shopping down is a big deal for people, because they know they can get the same value--a No. 2 pencil from Wal-Mart is as good as a No. 2 pencil from anywhere else, and consumers know it-for a better price," Henderson says. "So they're paying less, but not making a quality sacrifice."

Last week, teen retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle both posted a decline in same-store sales for the month of June. The more affordable Aeropostale, however, saw its same-store sales jump 12%.

The National Retail Federation is scheduled to make its predictions for both back-to-college and back-to-school spending in the next few weeks.