• by April 9, 2001

(AP) - Sean McManus wouldn't take the bait. When asked how many people might watch the Masters given the hype over Tiger Woods' bid for a fourth straight major title, the CBS Sports president hesitated, saying, "I don't predict ratings anymore. There are so many factors in today's world of television, it's tough to predict anything."

Ratings for big-ticket events have been in decline lately, while some sports, such as NASCAR, have been enjoying boosts.

It's a multibillion-dollar roll of the dice year after year, as networks pay sports organizations for the rights to air events, advertisers pay for the right to reach viewers during those events, and networks and advertisers pay Nielsen Media Research to estimate how many people watch.

Major league baseball got $2.5 billion from Fox for six years of coverage despite declining ratings. The NBA votes Thursday on rules changes intended to increase scoring and viewership numbers as its $1.75 billion contract winds up. And the PGA Tour hopes to cash in on Woods' tremendous popularity in a new TV contract.

The XFL, meanwhile, has established ratings lows for prime-time programming, sports or otherwise, on network television.

The ratings drop reflects a general decrease in the draw of the major broadcast networks - ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox. Part of it, of course, is that there are many more viewing options today than there were 15 years ago. The proliferation of VCRs, cable and satellite TV, and the rise of the Internet all contribute.

The combined ratings for all prime-time programming on network affiliates have fallen 30% since 1986, while total ratings for basic cable have grown 523% over the same period.

"Appointment viewing" isn't just down for sports. Last month's Academy Awards show was the lowest-rated ever, and the average ratings for early evening news broadcasts on ABC, CBS and NBC have dropped nearly 40% in the past 15 years.

Another relevant stat: "Monday Night Football" has had its ratings drop each of the past six seasons, yet still is among the top 10 shows in Nielsen's rankings.

"The American public simply seems to have less time devoted to television than it did 10, 15, 20 years ago," said Neal Pilson, McManus' predecessor at CBS and now a consultant. "And people have more options when they sit down in front of their sets."

That helps explain why even though ratings for signature sports events have been down, broadcast rights fees have been rising.

"No one's creating new sports properties of any value so the values of existing ones continue to increase," Pilson said. "They stick out more than they did 20 years ago, because they have proven to be the most efficient way for advertisers to reach men."

Another reason fewer people watch certain sports events is there are so many of them. The uniqueness is gone.

The ratings weren't pretty for several major events in 2000: * The Sydney Games drew the lowest Olympic ratings since 1968. * The men's college basketball title game fell 18% from 1999 to a record low and the NCAA tourney as a whole also averaged its worst ratings ever. * The All-Star games for the NBA and baseball drew record lows. * The World Series fell 22.5% to a record low.

About a month before the World Series, Fox agreed to the six-year baseball deal that raises the sport's TV revenues by about 50% starting with this season. That capped a dizzying three-year span during which the NBA, NFL, NHL, NASCAR and NCAA all at least doubled their takes from TV.

Those heady times are probably over.

"We're going to now experience over the next few years a plateau in terms of sports rights fees," Pilson said.

"The economy is flattening out, and the constant decline in ratings does have an impact."

As McManus indicated, a myriad of factors can contribute to the rises and falls of ratings:

* Weather: A weekend snowstorm on the East Coast, for example, shuts people indoors, keeping them in front of their TVs. * What happens on the field: Any TV executive will be quick to dismiss poor ratings if a game is a blowout. * Who's participating: It probably didn't help the 2000 World Series that it had two New York teams; Woods alone can bump a golf tournament's ratings by 50%. * Who's not participating: The NBA hasn't drawn nearly as many viewers since Michael Jordan left. Fox Sports president Ed Goren, for one, insists the ratings downturn is due to change.

"I think the worm has turned," Goren said. "Ratings on network sports packages will be up this year."

The rating for the first major event of 2001, January's Super Bowl, was down 7% from 2000, but still probably will wind up as the year's most-watched program of any kind.

The NCAA championship game's rating was up 10.5%, but still was its second lowest in at least 25 years.

"In today's climate," Goren said, "staying even is a victory."