While premium streaming platforms will grow 13% to $10 billion in advertising revenue in 2024, national linear TV ad revenue will decline by nearly the same percentage in the opposite direction, according to estimates from IPG Mediabrands' Magna.

Traditional linear TV networks -- which still have the lion’s share of the national TV-video market (77%) -- will sink 9% to $34 billion.

Major premium streamers --  including Hulu, Peacock, Paramount+, Max, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video and Netflix -- will now represent 22% of the overall national TV and premium streaming video market.

With the two combined, overall national TV and premium streaming market (which also includes long-form AVOD channels such as Tubi, Pluto TV, Roku Channel, and Amazon Freevee) will drop by almost 2% to $44 billion.

Excluding the Paris Olympics and political ad-spend results, national TV/streaming will see a 5% decline.

The one bright spot for linear TV is local TV -- largely due to the Paris Olympics and Presidential election-focused political advertising.

Magna says it will expand 26% to $23 billion. 

Political advertising will be a major factor -- estimated to hit a record $9 billion -- with growth of 13% versus the 2020 President election advertising period.

At the same time, local TV "core" advertising revenues will slip 4% to $17 billion. This is largely attributable to being “hit by a slow down in the automotive [category]”, writes Vincent Létang, executive vice president of global market intelligence, for Magna.

Also on Thursday, MoffettNathanson Research released advertising estimates for YouTube, which continues to compete in the national TV marketplace and is projected to see advertising revenues grow 14% to $35.9 billion this year -- 13% higher in 2025 to $40.7 billion.