• by Wayne Friedman , July 31, 2009

One Wall Street estimate now says the broadcast network upfront market will land at about $8.3 billion -- down 10% in total volume versus a year ago.

David Joyce, media equity analyst of Miller Tabak + Co., says that true to their word, many networks -- broadcast and cable -- are selling less commercial inventory in this market. For broadcast networks, that means around 70% to 75%, down from their 80% to 85% levels of a year ago.

He expects ABC and CBS to be pulling back the most: ABC down 12% versus a year ago to $2.2 billion; CBS off 12.5% to $2.23 billion. Walt Disney Co. officials said recently that the company's ABC network anticipates selling less commercial inventory this upfront period.

Fox will fare better than ABC and CBS, losing just 5% in volume to $1.85 billion. NBC will be off 8% to $1.75 billion. CW will lose 13% to $330 million, mostly from its giving back its Sunday night prime-time programming periods to its affiliates to program and sell to advertisers.

Joyce admits that the overall spending reduction of 10% on the broadcast networks is "more optimistic" than some of its Wall Street analyst colleagues. He is also a bit more upbeat when it comes to cost-per-thousand viewer pricing [CPM] estimates -- CBS, off 1%; Fox also slipping 1%; ABC will be down 1% to 2%; and NBC, the worst of the bunch, falling 7%.

In regard to cable TV, he says overall network coffers will rise a bit -- 2.5% -- to $7.85 billion.

Still, some of the bigger networks may be selling less, which will result in overall lower upfront volume. For example, he believes that Turner networks will be down 10% versus sales volume of a year ago. Time Warner chief executive officer Jeff Bewkes has said Turner was looking to sell less this upfront period.

Some sudden movement in doing upfront deals over recent days -- after weeks of delay -- comes from some signs of a slowly improving economy, says Joyce.

"It's macroeconomics bringing buyers to the table," he says. "In a couple of quarters, we may be out of the recession. We have had some scatter pricing in the past that was 25% above upfront. [Marketers] may be nervous."

Broadcast and cable network representatives were unavailable or had no comment concerning upfront deal-making.