• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, September 15, 2009

The consumer magazine industry, which has been hit by a perfect storm of negative newsstand sales factors during 2009, is actually delivering relatively stable total circulation figures, according to a comprehensive analysis being released today by the Magazine Publishers of America. The white paper, entitled "The Full Story On Magazine Circulation Vitality," is a rapid response by the trade association to a spate of negative stories about magazine newsstand sales prompted by the recent release of a so-called FAS-FAX report from the Audit Bureau of Circulations.

The MPA analysis points out that newsstand sales account for only 12% of the total circulation of consumer magazines, and that when a slight rise in subscription sales are factored into the equation, total circulation is down only 1% through the first six months of 2009.

The MPA analysis also implies that a precipitous decline in newsstand sales during the first half of 2009 was due to a combination of one-time anomalies, as well as longer term, systemic shifts.

The one-time occurrences include the closing of Anderson News, a major distributor of consumer magazines that accounted for about 25% of newsstand copies, as well as the affects of the economic recession.

The longer term shifts include dramatic shifts in how American consumers shop at retail locations - a major source of magazine newsstand sales - and the impact digital media is having on the distribution, consumption and subscription of consumer magazines.

While the net effect is a slightly negative decline in total circulation during the first half of the year, the MPA analysis indicates most of the disruption occurred during the first couple of months of 2009, and may be attributed to the disruption created by the closure of Anderson News. According to the MPA, newsstand sales actually increased during the May through July period compared with the first four months of the year.

"We're pretty much back to where we were," says Ellen Oppenheim, chief marketing officer of the MPA, referring to the 1% decline in total circulation. "That's relatively stable, when you look at that distribution change, as well as the economy."

In addition to the economy, which likely has led some consumers to cutback on newsstand purchases of magazines, the MPA analysis implies that magazine cover stories may also have been a factor influencing retail sales. It shows the positive affect special coverage of Michael Jackson's death had on newsstand sales.

"A lot has been made out of social media's importance in communicating that story, but what gets lost in the shuffle is that magazines were also an important part of that," says Oppenheim. Presumably, the quid pro quo suggests the magazine industry had some less than compelling cover subjects earlier in the year.

Aside from the impact of Anderson News, the MPA analysis indicates how changes in retail purchasing channels is impacting magazine sales, as Americans reduce the number of shopping trips that make, and as they shift from conventional supermarket chains to so-called supercenters, dollar stories and warehouse stores that are less likely to merchandise consumer magazines.

Magazine publishers also are adapting to changing sales channels, and are now reaping more of their subscription sales from online and digital methods, including digital editions of printed magazines, Oppenheim notes.

Other key disruptions that have been influenced by the economy, has been a cut back in domestic travel, especially airlines, which are an important source for certain types of magazines aimed at business travelers.

"We don't have a crystal ball," concedes MPA Executive Vice President/Consumer Marketing Ken Godshall, but based on the stabilization of the newsstand sales scenario as 2009 progresses, he said there's a good chance publishers will actually see some overall growth this year, or at the very least, stable circulation amid a volatile economic backdrop.