More than 20% of U.S. cell phone users with contract-based wireless services are likely to switch to no-contract (a/k/a prepaid) plans in 2011, according to the New Millennium Research Council.
"Two thousand eleven is shaping up to be the year of the prepaid cell phone service plan," said Sam Simon, a senior fellow at the New Millennium Research Council, in a teleconference with reporters.
"We may have actually underestimated how quickly this trend would catch on."
According to the survey of 715 U.S. cell phone customers, 8% said they were "very likely" and 12% said they were
"somewhat likely" to switch from a contract-based cell plan to a no-contract policy that had no early cancellation fees. Additionally, nearly 10% said they would consider switching, but would not do
so because they would still be in their early cancellation penalty phase of their contracts in six months, according to the survey.
Of those who were not likely to switch, the number one reason
cited (by 61% of respondents) was that they liked their current phone and didn't want to lose it and its features. The number two reason, cited by more than half (52%) was that they would be subject
to a cancellation policy.
According to the poll, 47% said they would be either very likely (23%) or somewhat likely (24%) to switch to a prepaid or no-contract phone when the cancellation policy
ends. At the same time, 56% of users who said they were unlikely to switch in the next six months said they were at least somewhat open to switching at some point in the future. Only 38% said they
didn't see themselves ever switching to a no-contract cell phone.
"The hard core of those who want contract-based services is a distinct minority," Simon said. "And I would expect that to erode
even more over time."
The NMRC's survey was underwritten with a grant from pre-paid carrier Tracfone's Net10. However, Simon stressed the council maintained "100%" editorial control over the
poll, the analysis and the manner in which the information was released to the public.