• by Wayne Friedman , July 1, 2011

Almost a month removed from the first TV upfront deals between media agencies and television networks, two of the bigger players still haven't come to terms.

Media agency giant Group M still has not completed an upfront deal with Turner Broadcasting Groups networks, TNT, TBS, CNN, truTV, as of late in the day, Thursday, June 30.

Negotiations are still moving along; price has been a sticking point, according to media executives. Spokesmen at both Group M and Turner Broadcasting had no comment.

Turner had been typically aggressive in the marketplace, originally seeking big 13% to 15% + increases on CPMs. Executives say they have struck deals at other agencies in the 12% to 13% range, closing all upfront business for its entertainment programming by the second or third week in June -- except with Group M.

Group M commands a significant share of national television business -- roughly buying one-third of all U.S. national TV advertising.

Early on, some TV network executives believe the stalemate centered around doing a deal with Group M's Midas barter advertising group, Midas Exchange. There, media agencies work with clients in trading advertising time secured by the media agency for products/services. Then, TV networks give media agency discounted inventory in exchange for bigger advertising volume or better pricing with traditional upfront buys or other deals points.

Some TV sales executives anticipated a barter component was mandatory, as part of the upfront TV deal with Group M. But others say it was part of negotiation; some bigger cable TV network groups did not ink barter deals with Group M.

The debate has been whether Group M can wait out the market. In weak markets, this was surely to its advantage. In stronger markets, the picture isn't as clear. In stronger markets, media buyers -- especially seeking limited inventories of broadcast programming -- worry about missing opportunities.

For many years, cable networks did not have this advantage because they typically have been awash in all kinds of commercial inventory -- prime time, daytime, late night -- on several of their networks.

But increasingly, cable networks have come up with higher-rated, in-demand original programming. Cable's original dramas and higher-rated unscripted shows have gained more of a supply-and-demand advantage in this arena. Still, critics say all this amounts to a much smaller pool of in-demand total gross ratings points versus that of the broadcast networks.

The TV upfront market has been an more aggressive one this year, with broadcast and cable networks getting anywhere from 9% to 13% increases on the cost per thousand viewers.

Now broadcast networks' prime-time inventory is estimated to gain around 3% to 5% in overall volume to some $8.5 billion, according to one industry TV network estimate. Cable networks -- for all dayparts -- will add 12%, estimated to be at $8.96 billion. U.S. syndication TV programming is projected to move up 10% to $2.3 billion from $2.1 billion of a year ago.